Iran’s Strategic Expansion: The Rise of Proxies in Iraq

Growing Influence of Iranian Proxies in Iraq

In a notable shift in regional dynamics, the new Hamas political office in Baghdad remains shrouded in secrecy, lacking any external sign and with a closely guarded address. Similarly, the recently established Houthi office is just a short drive away, yet its exact location is also kept under wraps. This development marks a significant change as Iraqi government officials discreetly permitted both Iranian-backed militant groups to set up a more permanent foothold in Baghdad earlier this summer, following years of intermittent visits from their representatives.

This strategic shift, which Iraqi officials publicly deny despite the circulation of images showcasing these groups in Iraq on social media, is indicative of Iran’s broader strategy to encourage its proxies from various nations to exchange military expertise and collaborate on strategic targets.

The establishment of these new offices underscores Iraq’s increasingly pivotal role in the ongoing shadow war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Over the past two decades, particularly since the U.S.-led invasion that ousted the long-standing dictator Saddam Hussein, Iraq has been navigating a delicate balance between its powerful neighbor, Iran, with whom it shares an extensive 1,000-mile border, and the United States, which continues to maintain approximately 2,500 troops within Iraqi territory.

However, this balance has gradually tipped in favor of Iran. The Iranian regime has systematically worked to enhance its geopolitical influence by bolstering recruitment and funding for sympathetic forces within Iraq. This initiative is part of a larger strategy by Tehran to forge a regional coalition of Shiite power, extending its reach to Lebanon through Hezbollah and to Yemen via the Houthis.

In recent years, Iran has exerted pressure on the Iraqi government to formalize the status of the country’s Shiite militias, some of which have direct loyalties to Tehran. This legitimization process has also encompassed affiliated Sunni, Christian, and Yazidi armed groups, integrating them into Iraq’s national security framework. Additionally, these Shiite forces have successfully formed political parties, culminating in a coalition that secured sufficient seats in the 2021 elections to influence the selection of the prime minister.