Russia Faces Demographic Crisis as Birth Rate Hits Lowest Level Since 1999

Russia’s Birth Rate Crisis: A Deepening Concern

Russia is currently grappling with a significant demographic crisis, as evidenced by the alarming drop in its birth rate, which has plummeted to its lowest level since 1999. In June 2024, the number of live births fell below 100,000, raising serious alarms within Moscow about what many are describing as a critical population decline. According to data released by Rosstat, Russia’s governmental statistics agency, from January to June 2024, there were 599,600 births, which marks a decline of 16,000 compared to the same timeframe in 2023.

Compounding this issue, Russia’s population decline has accelerated by 18% during the same period, with an additional 49,000 deaths recorded in 2024 compared to the previous year. This increase in mortality is believed to be largely influenced by the ongoing casualties resulting from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Nina Ostanina, the head of the State Duma Committee for Family Protection, highlighted the urgency of the situation, stating that a “special demographic operation” is necessary to stimulate the birth rate. This terminology reflects the government’s acknowledgment of the demographic challenges exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine.

The Ongoing Population Challenge

Russia’s population has been on a downward trajectory since the 1990s, with only brief periods of recovery. For context, the birth rate in 1999 was recorded at 1.6, a figure lower than during the devastating years of World War II. Since Vladimir Putin assumed the presidency, he has repeatedly emphasized the importance of enhancing the birth rate as a key priority for the nation.

The Kremlin has often romanticized the notion of young motherhood, with Putin framing it as part of Russia’s “historic duty” in 2020. In response to the demographic crisis, the government implemented a series of family-oriented policies, including:

• Expanding paid childcare services for low-income families.
• Introducing tax incentives for larger families.
• Promising to increase the availability of nursery places.

However, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated these demographic challenges. The conflict has triggered a mass exodus of individuals, including those opposed to Moscow’s policies and young men seeking to avoid conscription, while few newcomers are entering the country.

Alex Kokcharov, a country risk analyst for Eurasia, pointed out that despite the government’s financial incentives, the fertility rate in Russia continues to decline as the war drags on. He noted, “With the war persisting into its third year and directly impacting Russian territory, financial support alone is not sufficient. Families are hesitant to make decisions about having children amidst the prevailing security uncertainties in border regions.”

An Atlantic Council report further underscores the potential long-term implications of the ongoing conflict on Russia’s demographics, suggesting that the war could lead to a reduced population and a shrinking workforce. The report warns that the loss of young Russians in the conflict could significantly alter the future labor market landscape.

In a sobering statement, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko cautioned local media in June that the country could face a shortfall of up to 2.4 million workers by 2030 if the population decline persists. Notably, he refrained from directly linking this demographic forecast to the ongoing military actions.

Interestingly, Russia’s current birth rate is comparable to that of Germany, which has a moderate birth rate within Europe. This stands in stark contrast to Spain, which has one of the lowest birth rates at 1.16, while France boasts one of the highest at 1.79.