Reassessing Europe’s Strategic Response to the US Presidential Election

Even prior to President Joe Biden’s announcement to withdraw from the presidential race, the upcoming US election on November 5 has been recognized as one of the most significant global political events of the year, casting a long shadow over Europe. The stark contrasts between the candidates, not only in their policies but also in their styles, underscore their potential impacts on Europe’s security and economic stability. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that substantial strategic shifts in US politics are transpiring, independent of the election results. In this context, Donald Trump represents more of a symptom of these changes rather than their primary catalyst.

Anticipating a Shift in Washington’s Focus

Several pivotal developments indicate this considerable transformation within the US. The nation is currently undergoing a transition to a heightened focus on the Indo-Pacific region. This strategic pivot began during the Obama administration with the concepts of ‘pivoting to Asia’ and ‘rebalancing,’ and it has gained even more momentum under Trump. The Biden administration perceives China as the foremost and most complex challenge to US security. US President Donald Trump attended a North Atlantic Council meeting during a NATO summit of heads of state and government in Brussels, July 2018, File.

As a result, China is set to remain America’s principal competitor for the foreseeable future, demanding increased attention from US policymakers. The calls for nations across different regions to take sides in this escalating rivalry are likely to become more pronounced.

Economic policy shifts are also apparent. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) stands out as a particularly notable development. The steel and aluminum tariffs implemented by the Trump administration were not mere anomalies but rather indicative of a broader departure from a rules-based order that relies on the World Trade Organization.

Related

• Is the German government prepared for a potential Trump US election victory?
• European leaders discuss security as the specter of a possible Trump presidency looms

The decision that European automobile manufacturers will not benefit from the substantial subsidies for electric vehicles in the US starkly highlights the strain on transatlantic relations. This situation poses the risk of heightened competition between Europe and the US, as both seek to attract investments through government incentives.

What Steps Should Europe Take?

From this analysis, several critical implications for Europe emerge. First and foremost, Europe must bolster its investment in security and defense. This move will not only enhance Europe’s own capabilities but also increase the likelihood of American support, countering Trump’s recurring accusations against European nations for being ‘freeloaders.’ This strengthening of defense should urgently involve enhanced collaboration among the few European countries with significant defense industries, fostering a European innovation ecosystem that could also benefit the civilian sector.

Secondly, Europe needs to develop larger capital markets and bolster the euro’s status as a global reserve currency. Such initiatives would improve funding for innovation and growth within Europe while amplifying its influence in international capital markets, thereby enhancing Europe’s independence and strategic autonomy. The continent does not face a capital shortage but rather a challenge in capital allocation. Integrating European capital markets is a vital step in overcoming this issue.

Related

• Trump claims ‘very tough guy’ Orbán wants him back in office
• Project 2025: The ultra-radical game plan for a second Trump presidency

Thirdly, establishing comprehensive trade agreements with other global regions, such as the Mercosur agreement, is essential. Diversifying supply chains and sales markets will strengthen Europe’s strategic independence and foster economic growth.

While the US remains Europe’s most significant ally in numerous respects, particularly through NATO, it is essential for Europe to avoid an equidistant relationship with both China and the US. Europe’s interests do not always align with those of Washington, regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election. Europe must recognize this reality and take the necessary steps to navigate this evolving geopolitical landscape.

Jörg Rocholl is President of the European School of Management and Technology (ESMT) Berlin.
At Euronews, we are committed to representing diverse perspectives. Contact us at view@euronews.com to share your insights or submissions and participate in the ongoing dialogue.