Preparing for a Possible Trump Presidency: European Perspectives

As the US election approaches, European leaders are mentally bracing themselves for the potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency. Such an event would have significant ramifications, not only for trade and diplomacy but also for the collective security framework that has underpinned a relatively peaceful Europe since the conclusion of World War II. While Trump’s campaign is currently centered on domestic issues, the lessons from his previous term provide insights into how he might navigate international relations, particularly with Europe.

Trump has made it clear who he considers his allies in Europe: a network of right-wing leaders and opposition figures who share his skepticism of international institutions, multiculturalism, progressive social policies, and free trade. However, the political landscape has evolved since his last presidency, especially in light of Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine. This means that a new Trump administration would need to forge new alliances and tackle various challenges, or potentially disengage from them altogether.

Viktor Orbán: Hungary’s Autocratic Ally

Among Trump’s admirers is Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, known for his promotion of “illiberal democracy.” Despite facing criticism from the EU regarding his authoritarian tendencies, Orbán has gained admiration from certain factions of the American right, who view his governance as a potential model for the United States. His inclination to indulge conspiracy theories regarding “globalist” influences has allowed him to justify significant restrictions on media and academic freedoms, distancing his country from EU norms.

Orbán’s influence extends beyond Hungary; he wields veto power within various EU institutions and NATO, where he has previously collaborated with Turkey to delay Sweden’s accession. Currently holding the rotating EU presidency, Orbán has utilized this position to provoke tensions with other European leaders, particularly through his recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his pursuit of an unconventional foreign policy that puts him at odds with many of his European counterparts.

Emerging Right-Wing Leaders

While Orbán stands as a unique figure, other European leaders are trending towards his ideological stance. In Slovakia, the return of right-wing Prime Minister Robert Fico to power in 2023 marks a shift towards more conservative governance. Fico, who recently survived an assassination attempt, has exhibited anti-LGBTQ+ sentiments, an anti-immigration stance, and a warmer approach towards Putin than most European leaders. This indicates a growing acceptance of right-wing politics in parts of Europe, albeit with some leaders still facing electoral setbacks.

Giorgia Meloni: Italy’s Conservative Prime Minister

Another significant player in this landscape is Italy’s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni. As the most right-wing leader in the G7, she has been proactive in cultivating relationships with international right-wing movements. Despite her culturally conservative and nationalistic views, Meloni has successfully navigated the political waters of the EU without acquiring the same stigma as Orbán. Her coalition with the anti-immigration Lega party has not overshadowed her ability to connect with other governments.

If Trump is re-elected, Meloni’s position could make her a crucial ally, potentially serving as a bridge between a new Trump administration and an EU that may have conflicting priorities. Her adeptness in foreign relations could help mitigate some of the tensions that might arise from Trump’s policies.

The Rise of Europe’s Radical Right

Trump’s most fervent supporters in Europe can be found within the ranks of hardline and extreme right-wing parties, many of which are either in opposition or operating from outside the elected government. Notable groups such as Spain’s Vox, France’s National Rally, Alternative for Germany (AfD), and Reform UK have made significant strides in recent years, increasing their presence in national parliaments and gaining notable electoral victories.

These parties, similar to Trump, often oppose mass immigration—particularly from economically disadvantaged and predominantly Muslim nations. They express skepticism towards NATO, the EU, and other international entities while appealing to socially conservative voters who feel marginalized by mainstream politics.

Some leaders from these parties, like Nigel Farage from Reform UK, have openly aligned themselves with Trump and his allies, often participating in Trump events and engaging with right-wing media in the US. However, predictions about the dominance of this political trend in Europe have not materialized as expected. For instance, Farage’s party holds a limited number of seats, and the National Rally has fallen short of its electoral ambitions.

Conclusion: The Future of US-EU Relations

Despite some gains, the overall landscape suggests that Trump would confront a Europe largely resistant to his unorthodox, sovereignty-first approach. With European leaders prioritizing a pro-Ukraine, multilateral strategy, the implications of a second Trump presidency could indeed challenge the existing international order. This scenario underscores the importance of centrist and internationalist policies in Europe, as they seek to maintain stability amidst potential upheaval.

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