Labor Market Shows Signs of Slowing Down Amid Rising Interest Rates

Labor Market Shows Signs of Slowing Down

The labor market seems to have entered a phase of reduced momentum, raising concerns about businesses’ willingness to hire amid rising interest rates that impact investments and an uncertain trajectory for consumer demand. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employers added a modest 142,000 jobs in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking a disappointing outcome for the second consecutive month, with downward revisions for the totals in June and July.

Despite this, the unemployment rate experienced a decline, dropping to 4.2 percent after a slight increase to 4.3 percent in July.

Here are some key takeaways:

• Revisions Reflect a Cooler Labor Environment: The job totals for June and July were revised downwards by a combined total of 86,000 positions, resulting in a three-month average of just 116,000 jobs added. Comparatively, the year prior saw an average addition of 202,000 jobs each month.
• Wage Growth Surprises on the Upside: Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4 percent in August from the previous month, translating to a year-over-year rise of 3.8 percent. This growth complicates the narrative of diminishing labor demand. Additionally, there was a slight uptick in the average workweek, suggesting that employees are receiving more hours of work.
• Strong Labor Participation Continues: The labor force participation rate for individuals in their prime working years, specifically those aged 25 to 54, saw a slight decline in August, falling to 83.9 percent. However, this is only a slight dip from July’s rate of 84 percent, which represented the highest level since 2001.
• July’s Unemployment Spike Was Temporary: The increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3 percent in July was largely attributed to temporary layoffs. This figure reverted to its more typical level in August, contributing to the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent.
• Broader Underemployment Metrics Show Rising Slack: A more comprehensive measure of underemployment, which encompasses individuals working part-time who prefer full-time positions, rose to 7.9 percent in August. This is the highest level recorded since October 2021.
• Sector Growth Continues to Narrow: Job growth in August was primarily driven by the health care and social assistance sectors, along with food and drinking establishments, and construction, which has displayed unexpected resilience despite the impact of high interest rates. Conversely, the manufacturing sector faced challenges, shedding 24,000 jobs.
• Implications for the Federal Reserve: This latest employment report arrives at a pivotal moment for Federal Reserve officials, who have recently shifted their focus from combating inflation—now significantly reduced—to assessing the overall health of the labor market. Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell has expressed a desire to prevent further erosion of job opportunities for workers and has indicated the central bank may begin lowering interest rates as early as mid-September. However, the extent of those reductions remains an open question.