Anticipating the Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Debate: Audience Expectations

Anticipating the Harris-Trump Debate: Audience Expectations

As the nation gears up for the much-anticipated debate on Tuesday night between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump, it’s difficult to ascertain just how many Americans will tune in. However, we can make an educated guess based on past viewing trends.

To put things in perspective, this event is not expected to reach the staggering viewership numbers of the Super Bowl, which typically attracts over 110 million viewers. In terms of non-sporting events, the audience for the finale of M*A*S*H, which captivated 106 million viewers in 1983, remains a benchmark that is hard to achieve in today’s age dominated by smartphones and online streaming.

That said, the finale of Seinfeld? Now that’s within reach. The record for the most-watched presidential debate stands at 84 million viewers, a figure from the first encounter in 2016 between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Therefore, the upcoming showdown between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump—set to air across nearly every major network—has the potential to draw an audience comparable to the series finales of Seinfeld (which attracted 76.3 million) and Cheers (which had 80 million viewers).

One factor working in favor of the debate’s potential ratings is Mr. Trump’s history of drawing viewers. He has participated in three of the four most-watched general election debates since 1976. Notably, his first debate with Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020 attracted 73.1 million viewers, ranking it as the third most-watched debate in history. His final debate with Ms. Clinton in 2016 garnered 71.6 million viewers, earning it the fourth spot on the list. Interestingly, both of those debates were moderated by Chris Wallace, who will not be moderating this time around.

The remarkable viewership numbers from these events are even more impressive considering they took place during an era when smartphones and streaming services were on the rise. It’s important to note that Nielsen’s data primarily reflects traditional TV audiences and does not include those who may watch via platforms like YouTube livestreams or subscription services such as HBO Max. However, viewers using services like YouTube TV or Hulu Live will be counted, making the measurement of viewership somewhat intricate.