Aircraft Safety Study: Declining Death Rates and COVID-19 Impact

The Aircraft Safety Study: Insights and Findings

A recent study conducted by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) revealed an astonishing statistic: the likelihood of a passenger dying aboard an aircraft anywhere in the world is only one in 13.7 million. This comprehensive analysis, which examined global passenger and fatality data from 2018 to 2022, found that the incidence of deaths onboard planes has been declining, with an average reduction of 7 percent annually. This positive trend reflects a broader pattern of “continuous improvement” that began in 1968, during which the death rate decreased by an average of 7.5 percent each year, even as air traffic increased significantly.

This encouraging news comes at a time when US aircraft manufacturer Boeing is grappling with several technical challenges, leading to the suspension of test flights for their latest 777-9 model. Additionally, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has initiated inspections of the 787 Dreamliner due to reported issues with pilot seat movements.

Death Rates Vary by Country

The study highlights that the risk of fatal incidents varies significantly based on the countries from which passengers are flying. The researchers categorized countries into three tiers: low, medium, and high risk, based on their air safety records. Tier 1, representing the lowest risk, includes nations such as the European Union, Australia, Canada, China, Israel, Japan, Montenegro, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Countries classified in Tier 2, which have a moderate risk, encompass Bahrain, Bosnia, Brazil, Brunei, Chile, Hong Kong, India, Jordan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. The remaining countries fall into Tier 3, categorized as high-risk nations.

For the first two tiers, the study revealed the death risk drops to one in 80 million passenger boardings, accounting for over half of the world’s population, which is approximately 8 billion people. “At that rate, a passenger could theoretically choose one flight at random every day for 220,000 years without facing the risk of a fatal accident,” the report noted. However, the study also indicated that the fatality risk is approximately 36 percent higher in Tier 3 countries, even though overall fatalities are on the decline.

Understanding the Safety Landscape

The researchers emphasized that while nations in the higher risk category are making progress in aviation safety over time, their passenger death risk remains significantly higher compared to safer regions. Notably, the study excluded incidents that were direct attacks on passengers, such as the tragic suicide bombing at Kabul airport in 2021, which resulted in the deaths of 170 Afghans and 13 US military personnel.

COVID-19 and Aviation Safety

Furthermore, the study took into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, defining this period as spanning from March 2020 to December 2022. Although the number of airline passengers plummeted during the pandemic, those who did travel faced a “new source of danger” concerning potential exposure to the virus while in flight. Researchers noted that airlines claimed the risk of COVID-19 transmission onboard was “all but impossible,” despite estimates from the US surgeon general indicating that 96 percent of flights during this period carried at least one passenger who tested positive for the virus.

Despite the emergence of this new risk, the researchers concluded that “there is no evidence to suggest that those who chose to fly experienced a higher risk of death from plane crashes or attacks than would have been anticipated had the pandemic not occurred.” They added, “Outside of on-board transmission of COVID-19, passenger safety did demonstrate a notable improvement.”

COVID-19 Transmission Estimates

In total, the research estimated that approximately 4,760 individuals died from contracting COVID-19 on flights during the defined pandemic period. However, the MIT researchers acknowledged the challenges in determining the exact number of deaths, as passengers who contracted the virus after a flight could have inadvertently spread it to others, potentially leading to subsequent fatalities.

“These estimates regarding COVID-19 related deaths are necessarily imprecise,” the study remarked. “While the calculations utilize conservative parameter estimates, they could still be underestimated.” The data did not account for any passengers under the age of 18, nor did it differentiate the age of passengers over 65, which is crucial, as mortality rates significantly increase in older demographics.