Telegram CEO Pavel Durov Released on Bail Amid Legal Challenges

French authorities have officially released Telegram CEO Pavel Durov from custody, allowing him to walk free on bail as of August 28. This unexpected turn of events took many bettors by surprise on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, resulting in a significant loss of approximately $270,000 in missed winnings for those who anticipated a longer detention.

Durov was formally indicted on Wednesday and subsequently granted bail after he posted a substantial bond of 5 million euros (equivalent to $5.6 million). As part of the bail conditions, he is required to report to police twice a week and must remain within the confines of France.

This swift release stood in stark contrast to the prevailing sentiment among bettors, who largely believed that a prolonged detention was likely. At one point, the odds of Durov being released in August hovered around the mid-30% range, while a release before October was estimated to be between 75% and 90%. Interestingly, as news broke of his release, the likelihood of an August exit surged to 50% just hours beforehand.

In this betting framework, each wager consists of a “Yes” and a “No” option, with each share paying out $1 in USDC—a stablecoin that maintains a value pegged to the U.S. dollar—if the prediction proves accurate, and nothing if it does not. Unfortunately for many, bettors collectively lost out on $270,000 by staking their money on “No” for both an August release and a release before October. It’s plausible that bettors were convinced French authorities would opt to detain Durov for as long as possible.

Given Durov’s significant wealth and his multiple citizenships, including that of the United Arab Emirates—where extradition of its citizens is not practiced—bettors speculated that he had the means to evade legal consequences in France. This likely fueled their belief that French officials would do everything in their power to keep him in custody.

On the flip side, a user identified as Champ accurately predicted that Durov would be released in both August and before October, making them the largest holder of the “Yes” side on both contracts. Champ’s successful forecasts netted them a total of $26,138 from the two contracts, which, when added to the original stake, brought their total winnings to an impressive $56,638.

Another intriguing contract suggested that there is only a 6% chance of Durov fleeing France by mid-month, indicating that bettors largely expect him to adhere to the terms of his bail.

Despite the ongoing discussions surrounding Durov’s legal troubles capturing the attention of the crypto community this week, the subject will likely take a back seat during a live town hall event featuring Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in Wisconsin later today. Bettors currently assign only a 14% chance that Trump will mention Durov during the event, in stark contrast to a 92% likelihood that he will utter “MAGA” and an 84% chance he will refer to the term “Border Czar.”

However, given Trump’s unpredictable nature, anything could happen. In a recent interview with Elon Musk, bettors wagered over $250,000 on the former president mentioning “Tesla,” which drove the bet’s peak to 79%. Instead, he referred to the car manufacturer only as “your cars,” showcasing his penchant for surprises.