Strategic Nuclear Policy Shift Under President Biden

In March, President Biden approved a highly classified nuclear strategic plan for the United States, marking a significant change in America’s deterrent strategy. Notably, this plan, known as the “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” is the first to explicitly realign the nation’s focus towards addressing the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal.

This strategic shift comes in response to growing concerns within the Pentagon that China’s nuclear stockpiles could soon rival those of both the United States and Russia. Analysts project that, over the next decade, China will not only increase the size of its arsenal but also enhance its diversity, necessitating a reevaluation of U.S. nuclear strategy.

The White House has not formally disclosed Mr. Biden’s approval of this revised strategy, which also aims to prepare the United States for potential coordinated nuclear threats from multiple adversaries, including China, Russia, and North Korea. The “Nuclear Employment Guidance” is typically updated every four years, and its classified nature means that there are no electronic copies; only a limited number of hard copies are distributed to select national security officials and Pentagon commanders.

Although the details of the guidance remain under wraps, senior administration officials have hinted at the changes in recent speeches. These references were carefully crafted and limited to single sentences, indicating a more comprehensive, unclassified notification to Congress is anticipated before Mr. Biden’s term concludes. According to Vipin Narang, a nuclear strategist at M.I.T. who previously served in the Pentagon:

• “The president recently issued updated nuclear-weapons employment guidance to account for multiple nuclear-armed adversaries.”

This evolution in nuclear policy underscores the shifting landscape of global security and the increasing complexity of nuclear deterrence in the modern era.