Ongoing Russian Gas Flow to Europe Amid Conflict: Challenges and Impacts

Continued Flow of Russian Gas into Europe Amid Ongoing Conflict

Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has persisted for over two and a half years, the flow of Russian gas into Europe remains uninterrupted. This is in stark contrast to the raft of sanctions imposed by the European Union and various individual European nations, who have repeatedly affirmed their commitment to support Kyiv in its struggle against Moscow’s aggression. As Ukraine continues its military operations, including incursions into Russia’s Kursk region—home to a vital gas measuring station in the town of Sudzha—questions arise about the continued gas flow.

The town of Sudzha serves a crucial role in the natural gas supply chain, facilitating the transit of gas from western Siberia through Ukraine and into the EU, which subsequently distributes it to countries like Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia for electricity generation and heating purposes. Verification of control over the Sudzha station is challenging due to military secrecy and limited access for observers and journalists. Nonetheless, Ukraine has maintained the integrity of its pipeline systems throughout the war, allowing the gas to flow uninterrupted into Europe. On Tuesday, the Ukrainian gas transmission system operator reported that approximately 42.4 million cubic meters of gas were scheduled to pass through the Sudzha station, aligning with the average flow over the preceding month.

Prior to the onset of the war, Kyiv and Moscow had established a five-year agreement that mandated Russia to deliver specified volumes of gas through Ukraine’s pipeline network—an infrastructure developed during the Soviet era—to Europe. This arrangement allowed the Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom to earn revenue from gas sales while Ukraine benefited from transit fees. As this agreement approaches its conclusion at the year’s end, Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko has made it clear that the country has no intention of extending the deal.

Impact of the War on Energy Supply

Before the full-scale invasion launched in February 2022, Russia supplied nearly 40% of Europe’s natural gas, utilizing pipelines that traversed the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream), as well as routes through Belarus, Poland, Ukraine, and the Turk Stream under the Black Sea to Bulgaria. Following the outbreak of hostilities, the Kremlin curtailed most gas supplies through the Baltic and Belarus-Poland pipelines, citing disputes related to payment demands in rubles. The Nord Stream pipeline suffered sabotage, with investigations into the incident remaining inconclusive. Recent reports suggest Ukrainian involvement, prompting German authorities to issue an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian citizen, while Kyiv consistently denies any connection, attributing blame to Russia instead. Moscow, for its part, alleges that the United States orchestrated the attacks, a claim Washington has denied.

The interruption of Russian gas supplies precipitated an energy crisis across Europe. Germany invested billions in establishing floating terminals to facilitate the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) via maritime routes, a significant shift from traditional pipeline deliveries. As prices surged, consumers were compelled to reduce consumption, leading to Norway and the US stepping in as primary suppliers to fill the void left by Russian gas. The European response to the cutoff was one of viewing it as energy coercion, with plans announced to eliminate Russian gas imports entirely by 2027.

Challenges in Reducing Dependence on Russian Gas

Despite these efforts, Europe has not completely banned Russian gas imports, a situation underscored by the financial benefits that Moscow derives from these transactions—supporting the Kremlin’s budget, stabilizing the ruble, and ultimately financing its military endeavors. Approximately 3% of Europe’s gas imports still traverse Sudzha, which is part of the broader 15% of imports that originated from Russia last year. The ongoing reliance on Russian gas places European nations, particularly Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary, in a precarious position as they scramble to secure alternative energy sources.

The European Union has drawn up plans aimed at ceasing Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027, but progress has varied significantly among member states. For instance, Austria has ramped up its Russian gas imports from 80% to 98% over the last two years, while Italy, although it has reduced direct imports, continues to receive Russian gas through Austria. Additionally, the EU has maintained its LNG imports, which constituted 6% of total imports last year. Early data from this year indicates that LNG shipments to France have more than doubled.

Moreover, EU members Romania and Hungary have brokered gas agreements with Turkey, which in turn sources gas from Russia. According to Armida van Rijd, a senior research fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, “Russian gas is being laundered through Azerbaijan and Turkey to meet continued high European demands.” She further noted that while European attempts to curtail reliance on Russian gas are commendable, the political landscape complicates the complete diversification of energy supplies, especially as many nations grapple with inflation and a rising cost-of-living crisis.

In response to the ongoing situation, the EU has recently agreed to implement a new series of sanctions against Russia, specifically targeting LNG supplies for the first time after multiple delays in the approval process. Hungary has frequently obstructed the bloc’s efforts to impose sanctions on Moscow, a reflection of its heavy dependence on Russian energy and its comparatively amicable relations with the Kremlin, diverging from the stance of many of its European counterparts.