Assessment of Israel’s Military Operations in Gaza: Limits and Consequences

Assessment of Israel’s Military Operations in Gaza

According to senior American officials, Israel has reached the limits of what it can achieve militarily in Gaza. They argue that ongoing bombings are exacerbating risks to civilian life, while the chances of further weakening Hamas have diminished significantly. As the Biden administration accelerates efforts to revive cease-fire negotiations, a growing consensus among national security officials across various government sectors indicates that although Israel’s military actions have severely impaired Hamas, the group cannot be entirely eradicated.

In many ways, Israel’s military campaign has inflicted greater damage on Hamas than U.S. officials initially anticipated when the conflict ignited in October. Current assessments reveal that Israeli forces now have the capability to operate freely throughout Gaza, indicating a marked tactical advantage. Reports suggest that Hamas has suffered substantial losses, with approximately 14,000 combatants either killed or captured, according to the Israeli military’s claims from last month. However, it’s worth noting that U.S. intelligence agencies employ more conservative methodologies to estimate casualties within Hamas, and the exact figures remain classified.

Additionally, the Israeli military has asserted that it has decimated half of the leadership within the Qassam Brigades, which serves as the military wing of Hamas. This includes the elimination of prominent leaders such as Muhammad Deif and Marwan Issa. Despite these significant achievements, one of Israel’s remaining primary objectives—the return of approximately 115 hostages, both living and deceased, who were taken during the October 7 Hamas assaults—cannot be accomplished through military means, as emphasized by both current and former American and Israeli officials.