The Complex Landscape of European Peace Amidst Hybrid Warfare

Despite the ongoing conflict and a persistent cost-of-living crisis, the average European citizen experiences a life that remains largely peaceful and comfortable. This is underscored by the recently released Global Peace Index 2024, which illustrates that the top 10 most peaceful countries are predominantly European. However, beneath this facade lies a more troubling reality: Europe is entrenched in a prolonged and fierce hybrid war that demands our urgent attention.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Western world has mobilized an unprecedented level of military and economic support to counteract the aggressive actions against Ukraine. While this assistance has been vital in safeguarding Ukrainian sovereignty, it has simultaneously intensified Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics against the West, particularly targeting the European Union.

The Kremlin’s Relentless Offensive

Although Russia is the most conspicuous aggressor, it does not act in isolation. The Kremlin has skillfully aligned its interests with those of other nations, collaborating with partners like Belarus, Iran, and North Korea. These nations exacerbate Russian hostilities by hosting Russian nuclear weapons and supplying military resources. However, China’s role is particularly noteworthy, as highlighted during the recent NATO Summit in Washington, where it was identified as a significant enabler of Russian aggression and an active participant in the hybrid war against transatlantic allies.

While Russia operates alongside these allies, it remains a uniquely aggressive actor, engaging in a multifaceted war against the West from the relative safety of obscurity. The recent European Parliament elections exposed a disturbing trend, with consultancy firms identifying tens of thousands of accounts disseminating disinformation during a critical voting period, which saw a surge in populist parties with pro-Putin stances.

False narratives, such as the so-called “Bugatti-gate,” have also surfaced. This fabricated story claimed that Olena Zelenska, the First Lady of Ukraine, purchased a luxury car for €4.5 million amid Ukraine’s dire circumstances. Although this myth was quickly debunked through deep fake technology and false media outlets, it nonetheless influenced political discourse across Europe, at least temporarily.

Escalation of Subversive Tactics

Beyond disinformation, more sinister tactics are emerging, with networks of infiltrators and intelligence operatives increasingly being uncovered within the European Union. From prominent academics in the Baltics to seemingly innocuous expat florists in Slovenia with ties to Russian intelligence, the situation is becoming increasingly dire.

Financial entities like Pravfond serve to facilitate Russian intelligence operations, funding disruptive and destabilizing activities throughout Europe. By manipulating migration routes and providing resources to migrants, Russia and Belarus have adopted a ruthless approach to hybrid warfare. This strategy not only tests Europe’s border management capabilities but also fuels anti-migrant sentiments, often exploited by political factions sympathetic to Russian interests.

From Assassination to Sabotage: A Broader Strategy

When examining these hostile actions in isolation, they may appear as mere nuisances. However, collectively, they represent a comprehensive hybrid warfare strategy with continually shifting boundaries. In recent months, the Baltic Sea has transformed into a frontline in Russia’s hybrid war, with calculated provocations aimed at EU member states. A critical component of this strategy involves reigniting border disputes in the Gulf of Finland, along the Narva River with Estonia, and in the sea around the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, where Russia unilaterally attempts to redraw borders in violation of international law.

Special operations conducted within Schengen borders highlight the escalating threat posed by Russia. Such actions could lead to catastrophic incidents that result in severe environmental damage or significant civilian casualties—a sobering reminder of the gravity of the situation. The recent Nord Stream 2 leak serves as a case in point, demonstrating the potential consequences of such hostilities.

Numerous political dissidents have faced assassination attempts within Europe throughout Putin’s reign, with the recent targeting of Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, marking a troubling new phase in efforts to undermine support for Ukraine. Sabotage acts have also rattled Europe, as intelligence services report a surge in Russian probing of defense industries, underwater cables, and critical infrastructure. The future may bring further attempts to disrupt supply lines to Ukraine through sabotage, with air traffic and maritime navigation increasingly vulnerable to GPS jamming.

Looking Towards Ukraine: The Need for Vigilance

Given the mounting pressures on Europe, it is not surprising that Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen remarked in February that Russia could test NATO’s Article 5 solidarity within a three- to five-year timeframe. This sentiment was echoed by German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, emphasizing the need for unity among allies in anticipation of potential threats.

As escalations loom on the horizon, one might seek solace in NATO’s collective defense mechanisms. However, the recent assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden’s struggles for re-election signal a stark new reality for NATO if Trump regains office. An increasingly isolationist U.S. policy under Trump could undermine transatlantic unity, further intensifying the urgency for Europe to take charge of its security needs.

It is imperative for Europe to ensure that Ukraine remains capable of defending itself should U.S. support falter. Any failure to act decisively could invite disaster, fundamentally altering the balance of power in the region.

Alexander Borum is a Policy Leader Fellow at the European University Institute in Florence, specializing in the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy.

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