The Aftermath of Ismail Haniyeh’s Assassination and Its Implications for Iran

The Aftermath of Ismail Haniyeh’s Assassination

The suspected assassination of Ismail Haniyeh by Israeli forces has sent tremors through the Middle East, with significant implications for Iran. The predawn airstrike, which reportedly targeted the Hamas leader, has ignited fears of further escalation in an already volatile region. Although Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s death, Iran has vowed to retaliate, warning that the regime will face consequences for its actions.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was quoted saying, “The Islamic Republic of Iran is in no way seeking to expand the scope of war and crisis in the region, but this regime will definitely receive a response for its crimes and insolence.” The nature of Iran’s response remains uncertain, but it could involve mobilizing regional militias that have received arms and support from Tehran over the years.

The History of Iran’s Military Alliances

Iran’s longstanding policy of arming militias gained momentum after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Previously, the United States had supplied Iran with advanced weaponry, including F-14 Tomcat fighter jets, under the Shah’s regime. However, following the revolution and the subsequent U.S. Embassy hostage crisis, military support ceased, leaving Iran to rebuild its military capabilities amidst a backdrop of war and sanctions.

During the eight-year-long Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, much of Iran’s military hardware was destroyed, and ongoing international sanctions, particularly related to its nuclear program, hampered its ability to acquire new weapons. As a result, Iran has increasingly relied on militias as a strategic means to counterbalance the advanced military capabilities of Israel and its Gulf allies.

Hezbollah: A Key Ally

One of Iran’s most significant allies is Hezbollah, the militant group based in Lebanon. Established in the 1980s to combat Israeli forces, Hezbollah has developed into a formidable military entity, currently engaged in drone operations against Israel. The group is known to possess a vast arsenal, estimated to include around 150,000 rockets and missiles, some of which are precision-guided. This extensive stockpile poses a serious threat to Israeli security.

Hezbollah’s military capabilities are complemented by its experienced fighters, who have gained combat experience from various conflicts, including the Syrian Civil War. Estimates suggest that Hezbollah has around 25,000 full-time fighters, with the potential for tens of thousands more in reserve. In 2021, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, claimed that the group had trained over 100,000 fighters.

The Axis of Resistance: Iran’s Broader Network

Iran’s influence extends beyond Hezbollah, encompassing a range of militias across the region, collectively referred to as the “Axis of Resistance.” This network has been instrumental in Iran’s strategy to project power and counter U.S. and Israeli interests.

Iraqi Militia Forces

In Iraq, Iran has actively supported various militia groups, particularly since the rise of the Islamic State in 2014. The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a coalition of mainly Shiite militias, have become a significant political and military force in the country. Estimates suggest that these groups have around 180,000 fighters and are equipped with rockets, drones, and other military hardware.

Since the onset of the Israel-Hamas conflict, Iran-backed militias in Iraq have increased their attacks on U.S. forces, with over 60 documented incidents. The deadliest attack occurred on January 28, when a drone strike attributed to these groups resulted in the deaths of three American soldiers. In response, the U.S. has conducted airstrikes targeting militia positions, aiming to disrupt their operational capabilities.

Palestinian Militants: An Unlikely Partnership

Notably, Iran has also extended its support to Palestinian militant groups, despite their Sunni affiliation. Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad have received weapons and military support from Iran, illustrating Tehran’s commitment to opposing Israeli actions in the region. The conflict has escalated dramatically since the Hamas assault on October 7, resulting in heavy casualties on both sides, with tens of thousands of Palestinians reported killed in the ensuing Israeli military response.

The Houthis in Yemen

In Yemen, the Houthi rebels, who have controlled the capital Sanaa since 2014, have also benefited from Iranian backing. Although the Houthis practice the Zaydi branch of Shiite Islam, they have effectively turned into a significant military force capable of launching missile and drone attacks, even targeting Israel. The Houthis’ actions have disrupted international shipping routes and raised their profile in regional politics.

The U.S. Navy has struggled to contain the Houthi attacks, leading to intense confrontations reminiscent of historical warfare. While the extent of Iran’s direct control over the Houthis is debated, their collaboration has certainly bolstered the rebels’ military capabilities, allowing them to recruit and expand their fighting force significantly.

Potential Retaliation Scenarios

In light of the recent tensions, experts speculate about the nature of any Iranian retaliation. Following an Israeli strike on an Iranian facility in Syria, Iran demonstrated its military capacity by launching a significant barrage of drones and missiles toward Israel. A similar retaliatory strike is conceivable, especially if Hezbollah joins the fray, seeking to avenge the killing of a senior commander in the recent Israeli attack.

This potential escalation raises concerns about Israel’s air defense systems being overwhelmed, leading to increased casualties and a possible wider regional conflict. The situation remains precarious, with the potential for significant consequences not only for Israel and Iran but for the entire region.