The Crisis of Democracy in Venezuela Under Nicolás Maduro

The Current State of Venezuela’s Democracy

Venezuela is currently experiencing a profound crisis. President Nicolás Maduro, who has maintained an authoritarian grip on power since 2013, has recently declared himself the victor in yet another election. This election has drawn widespread condemnation from international observers, who have deemed the process undemocratic. Meanwhile, Maduro’s security forces have launched a crackdown, arresting hundreds of political opponents and dissenters. As new protests against his regime emerge, they appear to be losing momentum, raising the question: Is all hope for democracy in Venezuela extinguished?

Despite the grim outlook, opposition leaders are striving to push forward their agenda, and notably, the United States has recognized their candidate as the rightful winner of the recent elections. However, Maduro shows no signs of relinquishing his power. So, what would it take for a significant political shift in Venezuela? According to a variety of analysts, political scientists, and a historical review of similar situations, the answer predominantly hinges on the role of government security forces.

The Internal Threat

In a genuine democracy, politicians must secure the support of a majority of voters to maintain their positions. Conversely, in authoritarian regimes, leaders often rely on a narrow circle of influential individuals to sustain their rule. As Marcel Dirsus, a political scientist and author of How Tyrants Fall, aptly states, “The less democratic a political system becomes, the more reliant you are on just a very small number of people to maintain power.” This dynamic underscores the precarious nature of Maduro’s regime, which may ultimately depend on the loyalty and actions of these key figures within the security apparatus.