World
The Strategic Use of Elections in Autocratic Regimes
Explore how autocratic regimes strategically manipulate elections to maintain power and legitimacy. This analysis delves into the tactics used, the impact on democracy, and the implications for political stability in such systems.
The Complex Role of Elections in Autocratic Regimes
It is not uncommon for autocrats to conduct elections. As previously discussed, securing election victories can provide an autocratic leader with a semblance of a popular mandate. This can also serve to reassure both the military and political elites that the government’s grip on power is robust enough to ensure that loyalty is the safest option for them.
According to Gretchen Helmke, a political scientist at Rochester University in New York who specializes in democracy in the Americas, autocrats typically agree to hold elections because they believe they have a favorable chance of winning. “Or at the very least, they anticipate coming very close to victory, which allows them to manipulate the outcome without it appearing too blatant,” she notes.
Thus, elections are generally not seen as a threat to autocratic power; instead, they are a strategic tool employed to legitimize and consolidate that power. Autocratic leaders often exploit state resources to skew election outcomes in their favor. This manipulation occurs through various means, including:
- Arresting opposition leaders
- Disqualifying opposition candidates from running
- Implementing stringent controls over media coverage
However, there are moments when this carefully crafted strategy can backfire. Even tightly controlled elections can yield unexpected results, occasionally leading to victories for opposition candidates rather than a reaffirmation of the incumbent’s authority. In such cases, elections can transform from tools of autocratic control into significant challenges for those in power.
A historical example of this is the Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet, who anticipated that a plebiscite in 1988 would secure him a new mandate. Contrary to his expectations, the vote resulted in his ouster, paving the way for a return to democratic governance.
Currently, the implications of the recent election results remain uncertain for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who has shown remarkable resilience in maintaining his grip on power. Following the election, he declared victory after the government-controlled electoral body announced him as the winner, leaving questions about the legitimacy of this outcome and what it signifies for the future of his regime.