Navigating Uncertainty: Lebanon’s Resilience Amid Escalating Conflict

Arriving in Lebanon

I hear a child’s voice exclaim, “On est arrivés au Liban” — we have arrived in Lebanon. I can vividly imagine the child’s joyful face peering through the airplane window as the Transavia flight descends into Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. It’s mid-July, and the flight is bustling with families. Most of the passengers are Lebanese expatriates returning from Europe, eager to reconnect with their homeland for summer holidays. But so much has changed since they last visited.

A young woman in her thirties, born in Tripoli and now residing in Australia, shares her thoughts: “We are here for 10 days to visit our relatives. We also traveled to Europe. We’re in a good place where we live now.” When I inquire whether she left due to the ongoing tensions at the border, she adds, “It’s a mix of things. The country’s financial situation plays a significant role.” No one anticipated the turmoil that would unfold just days later. The situation shifts daily, and keeping track of developments proves challenging.

Escalation of Conflict

Last Saturday, a rocket attack in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in Northern Israel tragically claimed the lives of 12 children, prompting a fierce response from Israel. Hezbollah was accused of the attack, although the militant group vehemently denies any involvement, with many, including EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, calling for an independent investigation.

By the following Tuesday, Israel retaliated with a strike aimed at one of Hezbollah’s prominent commanders, Fuad Shukr. The strike targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs, specifically Haret Hreik, a well-known Hezbollah stronghold. In the aftermath, hundreds of flights in and out of Beirut were canceled, while various embassies issued warnings advising their citizens against traveling to the Lebanese capital.

I had already left the country before the flight disruptions began, yet I can’t help but think of the family I met on that plane. Will they be able to return safely to Australia? Where are they now?

A Serious Situation

It’s around 8 pm in Beirut when I call my friend Mariam, who works as an Arabic language teacher in the capital. “I’m fine,” she reassures me, “but one of my uncles was injured in the explosion. I hope it’s nothing serious.” Reports indicate that at least five individuals lost their lives in the attack on Haret Hreik, with several others injured. Hezbollah has yet to confirm the commander’s death but acknowledged that Shukr was present in the building that was struck.

Rami Khouri, a fellow at the American University of Beirut, reflects on the situation, stating, “After 20-25 years of continuous military exchanges between Hezbollah, Hamas, Israel, and others, they are now aware that this doesn’t resolve anything. None of them desires a full-scale war.” However, he expresses concern that an accidental provocation could lead to broader conflict. “If Israel attacks Iranian positions and the Iranians retaliate,” he explains, “we could see a more extensive and perilous confrontation. Yet, I don’t believe it will escalate to that level.”

Khouri continues, “We witnessed a glimpse of this dynamic a few months ago when Iran attacked Israel. It was a negotiated response, controlled and measured, resulting in minimal casualties.” He emphasizes the seriousness of the situation, describing it as “not a game but a theatrical one. It may or may not continue, but we are still in a scripted phase where responses have been agreed upon by both sides.”

Memories of Destruction

Having departed Beirut just days before the attack in the Golan Heights, I carry with me a profound impression of the resilience exhibited by the locals—residents and business owners alike—at the prospect of facing yet another war. Their strength, sense of community, and ability to adapt to the uncertainties of each day are genuinely remarkable. However, I wonder how long they can maintain this spirit. How can they balance their past traumas with the present, continually fighting back memories of the destruction and suffering wrought by previous conflicts?

Khouri believes that if the conflict expands across the region, we are unlikely to witness a full-scale war that devastates infrastructure and civilians as it did in 2006. “But anything can happen in such a rapidly evolving scenario,” he cautions.

Just hours after the attack in Southern Beirut, Hamas confirmed the death of its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in an Israeli strike in Tehran. In mere hours, two key figures in Iran’s network were targeted and eliminated. Even before delving into the analysis of the implications, it was evident that Haniyeh’s death marked a pivotal moment.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed “harsh punishment” for Israel, leading to an emergency UN meeting—this occurred shortly after a wave of optimism that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was within reach. Suddenly, tensions escalated dramatically.

Worsening Prospects

Michael Young, an analyst specializing in Lebanon, notes, “The likelihood of avoiding a broader conflict seems increasingly unrealistic. The involved parties have maneuvered themselves into a corner, forcing them to act to maintain their deterrent positions.” He suggests that Israel may seek to draw the United States into a conflict with Iran, recalling attempts to do so last April when Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus, adding a new dimension to the ongoing strife.

“If the US becomes involved, the nature of that involvement is critical,” Young explains. “Will it be defensive, as we saw in April, or will it involve preemptive strikes against Iran and its allies to protect Israel? This is where the true risk lies.” Young further asserts that it is nearly impossible for Israel to confront Iran and its allies independently; they require US support. However, he emphasizes, “the US administration appears to have lost influence over Israel. All I observe is confusion in Washington.” He warns that a full-scale war could devastate Lebanon, stating, “It would not only destroy the economy; it would dismantle society itself, making it exceedingly challenging to rebuild the nation.”

Seeking Peace

Having endured a 15-year civil war and the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon has become accustomed to managing multiple crises. Recently, the nation has been grappling with the aftermath of the catastrophic port explosion that rocked Beirut in 2020. Presently, Lebanon is facing one of its most severe economic crises, worsened by the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine. The country’s GDP has plummeted by 50%, with poverty now affecting 80% of the population. While pegging the local currency to the US dollar has alleviated some inflation, it has negatively impacted the livelihoods of those earning in Lebanese pounds. The tourism sector, a cornerstone of the economy, has also suffered greatly.

As I recall a conversation with a taxi driver, he lamented, “There are no more tourists; they have vanished.” This sentiment echoed the general atmosphere I sensed while wandering through the capital’s renowned bohemian street, Rue Gouraud, a vibrant area known for its dining establishments.

One of these establishments is “Le Chef,” which François Bassil opened in 1967, and which has since become a living testament to Lebanon’s history. It survived the civil war and the devastating port explosion not long ago. Charbel Bassil, François’ son who now manages the restaurant, warmly welcomes every customer. During lunchtime, the eatery is bustling.

“We live day by day, and thankfully, we depend on our local clientele,” Charbel says. “But all we desire is peace and for tourists to return. Our business has declined by 80%.”

Resilience on Display

As I exit “Le Chef,” I notice a young model posing for photographs. With a bright smile, she introduces herself as Fatima, a 20-year-old influencer. “The economic crisis is truly concerning,” she admits, “but we continue to live our lives. Resilience is key.”

The story of Joseph, owner of the recently opened bakery “Levant,” presents a different perspective on the crisis. Having moved back to Lebanon from France, he launched his business last autumn, just weeks before the outbreak of war in Gaza. “At no point have I considered reversing my decision, fully aware of the risks,” Joseph shares, noting that some of his employees have tragically lost homes and loved ones due to bombings in the south. “The sense of community in Lebanon is unparalleled,” he adds.

Indeed, the rich tapestry of cultures and diverse religious communities coexisting in Lebanon is one of the nation’s greatest attractions. However, political stability remains elusive. The inability to reconcile differences has stymied the establishment of a credible government that represents all Lebanese citizens. With the prospect of a meaningful truce in Gaza now appearing increasingly dim, Young comments, “We are paying the price for Netanyahu’s need to survive politically. He has never desired a ceasefire in Gaza.”

Uncertain Future

In the wake of the killing of Hamas’ leader Haniyeh, attention turned to a speech delivered by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Behind his cryptic message may lie the key to understanding the responses of both Iran and Hezbollah to Israel’s latest military actions. The message was unmistakable. Observers noted a significant shift in Nasrallah’s typically subdued tone in recent weeks. “Rejoice for a short while, and you will weep for a long time,” he warned, addressing Israelis. “We have entered a new phase on all fronts.”

Nasrallah underscored that he views the attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs as an act of aggression by Israel, rather than a mere “response.” Some of his statements hinted at a potential plan to retaliate against Israel in the same manner that Israel has targeted Lebanon and Iran.

Immediately, I reached out to Mariam to gauge the mood among her and her peers in the past few hours. “Yes,” she affirmed. “People are worried now, I won’t lie.” It seems that anxiety has permeated the air, which makes me reflect on my conversation with Joseph, and his resilience amid the uncertainty. He expressed a desire for Lebanon to be remembered for something beyond conflict. Above all, the message on the sticker at his café’s entrance resonates: “See you in Beirut, whatever happens.”