Biden’s Foreign Policy Legacy and the Upcoming Election Challenges

A Pivotal Moment in History

As President Biden welcomed the leaders of his 31 allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization just a week ago, he articulated a vision of how his first term in office would be perceived by future generations. He positioned himself as the American president who not only restored but also expanded NATO, the world’s largest military alliance, rescuing it from the brink of dissolution threatened by his predecessor’s intention to withdraw. Under his leadership, the West rallied against President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, effectively deterring direct aggression towards European nations beyond Ukraine’s borders.

In addition to this, Mr. Biden has laid the groundwork for a new American strategy aimed at containing China, though he refrains from labeling it as such. His administration has focused on restricting access to advanced technologies for Beijing while simultaneously investing billions in domestic production of cutting-edge chips.

However, Mr. Biden’s defense of his accomplishments came too late, following a surprising debate performance that led to his withdrawal from the race on Sunday. Consequently, a different nominee—most likely, though not definitively, Vice President Kamala Harris—will now be tasked with defending this record against a sharply contrasting narrative promoted by former President Donald J. Trump.

In his acceptance speech in Milwaukee on Thursday night, Mr. Trump claimed he had handed over to Mr. Biden a world at peace in January 2021, asserting that today “our planet is teetering on the edge of World War III.” This assertion is at best disingenuous; during Mr. Trump’s presidency, a low-level conflict simmered in Ukraine, one that he largely chose to ignore.

Historically, elections are seldom decided based on foreign policy records, unless the nation is embroiled in a war. While Mr. Biden’s narrative aligns more closely with historical realities than Mr. Trump’s, the Democratic nominee will face the formidable challenge of articulating how they plan to navigate a world that is undoubtedly far more perilous than it was four years ago. The next president will inherit a landscape fraught with tensions involving America’s nuclear rivals, China and Russia, where cold wars could erupt into open conflict with a single miscalculation.

More than any election in recent decades, this one will be characterized by sharply contrasting strategies in the face of simultaneous global confrontations: the resurgence of an arms race with both Beijing and Moscow; the imperative to deter aggression against Taiwan and safeguard the eastern flank of the Atlantic alliance; and Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas, which poses a continued risk of igniting widespread conflict in the Middle East. Each of these challenges has the potential to escalate dramatically under the next president’s watch.