Bitcoin, Crypto Market Surge Amid Trump’s Election Odds

Bitcoin and Crypto Market Surge Amid Trump’s Election Odds

Assets linked to U.S. Republican candidate Donald Trump’s probability of winning the Nov. 4 elections are experiencing heightened volatility following an attempted assassination of the former president on Saturday. Bitcoin (BTC) has notably rallied 7% to $62,500 since the weekend attack, boosting the pro-crypto candidate’s chances of winning the elections to 70% on Polymarket.

Market Trends and Reactions

The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has surpassed the crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a positive sign for momentum traders. Additionally, Trump-themed Polifi tokens, at the intersection of politics and finance, have surged in response to these developments.

• Chinese Yuan (CNY): The CNY has traded lower against the U.S. dollar due to concerns over potential higher trade tariffs in the event of a Trump victory.
• Mexican Peso (MXN): The MXN has also slipped as a result of Trump’s previous tense relations with Mexico during his presidency.
• 10-Year Treasury Note Futures: Prices for futures tied to the 10-year Treasury note have fallen, suggesting higher yields if Trump returns to the White House, leading to increased spending, tax cuts, and higher budget deficits.
• S&P 500 Futures: Futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 0.18% higher, indicating a positive market open on Monday despite Asian stocks dipping on disappointing economic growth figures in China.

Trump’s Stance on Crypto

In a surprising turn of events, Trump has embraced cryptocurrency to appeal to the crypto community and potentially gain an edge over his rival, Joe Biden. His commitment to speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July further solidifies his pro-crypto stance, making Bitcoin and the broader crypto market reflections of the odds of Trump’s victory.

Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, stated, “The Trump assassination attempt over the weekend has improved the odds of a Trump presidency. Trump’s pro-crypto stance should help drive the cryptocurrency market.”

Market Outlook

Investment banks are anticipating a potential Trump victory to lead to a steepening of the inverted yield curve in the coming months. However, historically, sharp steepenings have triggered broad-based risk aversion in financial markets.

Conclusion

The market is closely monitoring the developments surrounding Trump’s election odds, with various assets reacting to the shifting probabilities. The broader implications of a potential Trump victory are impacting different sectors, from cryptocurrencies to traditional financial instruments.