Sen. J.D. Vance’s Increasing Odds for Vice President Nomination

Sen. J.D. Vance, the Ohio Republican known for his advocacy in reforming digital asset regulations, has seen an uptick in his chances of becoming former President Donald Trump’s running mate. According to traders on the crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket, Vance now holds a 29% probability of being selected as the GOP’s vice presidential nominee.

Vance’s odds have more than doubled from 14% a week ago on Polymarket, which settles bets using USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar. Among 25 potential candidates listed on Polymarket, Vance ranks second with $65 million in wagers placed on the platform. Despite this, the leading bet is on an undisclosed candidate, with a 33% likelihood of securing the nomination.

Traders on Polymarket can purchase “yes” or “no” shares for each candidate, with each share paying out $1 in USDC if the prediction materializes. A separate contract on Polymarket, encompassing $7.6 million in bets, places North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum in the lead with a 30% chance of being chosen as the Republican vice-presidential nominee.

The anticipation for Trump’s announcement before or during the Republican National Convention, scheduled from July 15 to July 18, has fueled the surge in betting activity on Polymarket. Other potential contenders include Sen. Marco Rubio, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, and former contestant Vivek Ramaswamy.

Reports indicate that as of Sunday, Vance had not received an invitation to join Trump’s ticket, and the same applied to Rubio. Vance’s stance on digital asset regulation could make him a popular choice within the crypto community. He has been actively working on legislation aimed at providing clarity on regulations governing digital assets. Politico reported that Vance’s draft bill is perceived to be more favorable to the crypto industry compared to the legislation passed by the House in June.