Market Analysis: Biden’s Odds of Reelection Unchanged Despite Recent Interview

Despite appearing more coherent in a recent televised interview, U.S. President Joe Biden’s odds of reelection have not significantly shifted, according to traders on the crypto-based prediction market platform, Polymarket.

Presidential Election Predictions

• Shares for Biden winning the presidency were trading at 11 cents post-interview, down from 12 cents before the broadcast. This equates to an 11% chance of winning.
• One month ago, Biden’s shares were trading at 36 cents, but dropped after a poor debate performance against Donald Trump.
• The market size for the presidential winner contract on Polymarket stands at $229 million.

Democratic Nomination and Biden’s Candidacy

• Biden’s odds of winning the Democratic nomination increased by one percentage point to 42% after the interview.
• There is a separate contract with $12 million at stake on whether Biden will drop out of the race, with odds at 65%.

Market Growth and Concerns

• Polymarket has experienced a surge in volume this year, with June marking the first month with over $100 million in volume.
• Analysts have noted the platform’s ability to provide early signals on political matters, such as concerns over Biden’s cognitive health.
• While prediction markets are deemed valuable for their transparency and global participation, on-chain markets like Polymarket may be limited by the biases of its crypto-active users.