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The Iranian Presidential Election Runoff: Key Points

Explore the essential highlights and critical aspects of the Iranian Presidential Election Runoff in this comprehensive analysis. Learn about key points, implications, and potential outcomes.

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Iranian voters are facing a critical choice between Saeed Jalili, a hard-line former nuclear negotiator, and Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon and longtime MP who has aligned with moderates and reformists within Iran’s Shiite theocracy. After years of economic challenges, mass protests, and tensions, public apathy has become widespread in the Islamic Republic.

No candidate secured over 50% of the vote in the initial round on 28 June, leading to the runoff. With a turnout of only 39.9%, the lowest ever in an Iranian election, there have been calls for a boycott, including from imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi.

The Supreme Leader’s Influence

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 85, holds the ultimate authority over state matters, while presidents can influence the country’s policies towards confrontation or negotiation with the West.

The election excludes those advocating for radical change, and the voting process lacks oversight from internationally recognized monitors. The timing of the election coincides with heightened tensions in the Middle East due to the conflict in Gaza, where Iranian-backed militia groups are involved.

The Nuclear Deal and Current Challenges

Iran continues to enrich uranium at near weapons-grade levels and has a stockpile sufficient for several nuclear weapons. The 2015 nuclear deal with world powers collapsed in 2018, leading to hard-liners gaining power in the government.

If Jalili wins the election, concerns exist about a potential shift towards a more hard-line stance. Supporters of Pezeshkian fear a “Taliban-style” government under Jalili’s leadership, while Jalili criticizes Pezeshkian for running a fear-mongering campaign.

Conclusion

The runoff election, only the second in Iran since 1979, is significant. It follows the tragic death of Ebrahim Raisi, a key figure who was seen as a potential successor to Khamenei. The election outcome will shape Iran’s domestic and international policies, especially regarding its nuclear program and relations with the West.

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