Is Europe Ready for a Surge in Ukrainian Refugees?

On 18 May, the new Ukrainian Mobilisation Act came into effect, aiming to strengthen the Ukrainian army against the ongoing Russian aggression. The act has sparked debates in Ukraine and raised concerns for millions of Ukrainians living abroad and the European governments hosting them.

Key Implications of the Mobilisation Act:

• Lower Age Limit: The age limit for mobilisation has been reduced from 27 to 25, with mandatory basic military service for individuals aged 18-25.
• Removal of Exemption Category: The category of “limited suitability for military service” has been eliminated, potentially subjecting more individuals to frontline deployment.
• Data Update Requirement: Ukrainian men (and certain women) aged 18-60 must update their information in the military register within 60 days, which could impact Ukrainians living abroad.

Challenges for Ukrainians Abroad:

Medical Examination: Ukrainians living abroad may face the challenge of undergoing a mandatory in-person medical examination to update their military registration, potentially requiring them to return to Ukraine.

Compliance Dilemma: Failure to comply with the new requirements may result in fines, asset seizures, and loss of consular services, including passport issuance. This dilemma poses a significant challenge for Ukrainians residing abroad.

European Governments’ Responses:

European countries have shown varying responses to the implications of the Mobilisation Act. While some countries like Poland are considering halting residence permits for Ukrainian conscripts, others like Germany are offering alternative travel documents. The responses from European governments may differ, raising questions about how they will address the growing population of Ukrainian refugees without valid documents.

Conclusion:

The new Ukrainian Mobilisation Act has far-reaching implications for Ukrainians abroad and European governments. The potential surge in undocumented Ukrainian migrants in Europe poses a new challenge for both Ukrainian nationals and host countries. The need for a coordinated response to support Ukrainian refugees while upholding human rights remains a pressing issue for European governments.

Authors: Oleksandra Deineko, Guest Researcher at NIBR and OsloMet, and Vilde Hernes, Researcher at OsloMet.