French Legislative Elections Forecast

As the second round of legislative elections approaches in France, the latest polls indicate that the far-right party National Rally (RN), led by Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, may struggle to secure an absolute majority. Forecasts suggest that the RN and its allies are projected to attain a relative majority, expected to range between 210 and 240 seats in the French National Assembly. It falls short of the required absolute majority of 289 seats.

The left-wing coalition, known as the New Popular Front (NFP), is anticipated to garner between 170 and 200 seats. In contrast, the centrist liberal democrats of President Emmanuel Macron are predicted to secure between 95 and 125 seats. The center-right Republicans (LR) are forecasted to obtain between 25 and 45 parliamentary seats.

If these predictions hold true, Jordan Bardella of RN may face challenges in becoming the new prime minister, lacking sufficient MPs to effectively govern even with support from LR. Bardella remains optimistic, expressing his ambition to expand his majority and appeal to voters across the political spectrum.

Traditionally, French parties recommend their supporters to back the most viable candidate in each constituency during the second round. However, the final decision lies with the voters themselves, as emphasized by Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. The concept of the Republican Front, aimed at uniting against the far-right, has led to some candidates withdrawing in favor of stronger anti-far-right contenders.

As the election day nears, the French political landscape remains dynamic and uncertain, with strategic moves and voter decisions shaping the future composition of the National Assembly.