Speculations on President Biden’s Campaign Future and Rising Odds for Vice President Harris

The Odds of President Biden Dropping Out of the Race

The likelihood of President Biden exiting the race for the White House has surged to an unprecedented level of 55% on Polymarket. This increase follows reports from the Washington Post revealing that former President Barack Obama has expressed apprehensions regarding Biden’s campaign performance and recent debate showings.

Privately advising Biden while publicly maintaining confidence in his campaign, Obama’s concerns have stirred uncertainties among bettors regarding Biden’s future in the race.

Speculations on Biden’s Potential Withdrawal

Currently, the market indicates a 42% chance of Biden dropping out before the Democratic convention, set for August 19. Reports from the New York Times suggest that Democratic party leaders have already strategized a contingency plan in case Biden withdraws, leading to the nomination of a new candidate.

Rising Odds for Vice President Kamala Harris

If Biden were to step down, Vice President Kamala Harris emerges as a favored replacement, with her nomination seen as the most straightforward option. Consequently, Harris’ odds of becoming the Democratic nominee have risen to 31%.

Market data from Polymarket also indicates a 13% chance for Harris to win the presidential election, while Biden’s odds stand at 16%.

Market Activity and Betting Trends

With over $211 million wagered on the general presidential election contract and close to $10 million on Biden’s potential withdrawal, the betting landscape reflects the evolving dynamics and uncertainties surrounding the upcoming election.