European Council on Foreign Relations Poll: Public Opinion on Defense Spending and EU Expansion

The European Council on Foreign Relations Poll Findings

According to a poll conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations, citizens in major European countries such as France, Italy, Spain, and the UK are not in favor of increased defense spending. The reluctance towards increased defense expenditure may present a challenge as Europe aims to strengthen its military capabilities amidst the conflict in Ukraine and potential shifts in US commitment to transatlantic security.

The poll, based on surveys of 19,500 adults across 15 countries, also reveals widespread skepticism among EU citizens regarding further expansion of the bloc towards the east. This sentiment emerges just after the European Union initiated formal membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova.

The policy brief authored by Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard suggests that European governments are unlikely to garner public support for direct military engagement. There seems to be a divergence in perspectives between Kyiv and Brussels regarding the purpose of EU enlargement, with Ukrainians viewing membership as a recognition of their struggle while EU nationals perceive it as a component of a potential settlement agreement.

On June 25, the commencement of formal membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova was hailed by European Council president Charles Michel as a significant milestone for both nations and a strategic advancement for the EU. However, there is a prevailing skepticism, particularly in Italy, where over 62% of respondents believe that the government should refrain from substantial defense spending if it entails compromising on other critical sectors like health and education.

Notably, in Germany, a country historically inclined towards pacifism post-World War II, a majority of respondents expressing a preference support increased military expenditures. Nevertheless, there is a discernible anti-war sentiment among voters, which is being courted by political parties like the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance and the right-wing Alternative for Germany.

The poll coincides with the upcoming NATO summit in Washington, DC, amidst concerns that a potential second term for Donald Trump might not uphold the same level of support for Ukraine and Europe. While more NATO allies are meeting the 2% GDP defense spending target, Ursula von der Leyen has underlined the significance of military policy in her anticipated second term as the head of the European Commission.

However, public apathy persists towards Ukraine’s EU membership aspirations, with over half of Germans and a considerable portion of the French population expressing reservations due to concerns related to security, corruption, and financial implications. In contrast, countries like Poland, Estonia, Sweden, Spain, and Portugal exhibit more favorable attitudes, highlighting Ukraine’s cultural alignment with Europe and its potential role in resolving the conflict.

Despite the EU’s commitment to providing military aid to Ukraine, including a pledge to send a million shells, French President Emmanuel Macron has hinted at the possibility of further involvement by deploying French troops. Nonetheless, Macron’s leadership faces challenges from the resurgent National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, whose admiration for Russia’s Vladimir Putin and foreign policy stance pose additional complexities.