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The Complex Political Landscape of Iran

Explore the intricate and multifaceted political environment of Iran, delving into its complexities, challenges, and dynamics in this insightful content.

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Whether Ebrahim Raisi’s death was an accident or the result of a premeditated conspiracy by internal forces of the Islamic Republic regime, the reality is that the deadlock of the 13th government in resolving endless economic problems and addressing the nuclear issue with the West, especially with the increasing likelihood of Trump’s return to the White House, has left Ali Khamenei, the leader of Iran, in need of a new and different “soldier”.

Right now, Iranian society is like a cinder under ashes — a single spark can ignite it again. The previous flames have not yet been fully extinguished, and the government’s imminent need to increase fuel prices could reignite the unrest. Given the current state of international relations, it is unclear whether the Islamic Republic has the capability to manage such a situation again.

The Challenges Ahead

  • Direct military confrontation with Netanyahu’s Israel
  • Increasing pressure from European powers
  • Uncertainty about the future of the Biden administration
  • Potential shift in Russia’s support

While ultra-conservative Saeed Jalili’s presidency might appeal to the Russians and ensure Tehran’s distance from the West, the reality is that a figure like Masoud Pezeshkian, due to his fundamental differences with his rival in the second round, can act as a “safety valve” for the regime in times of danger.

Pezeshkian, often labelled as a reformist, can prevent anger from turning into hatred by guaranteeing some social freedoms to the youth, such as relaxing the mandatory hijab and offering some relative freedoms in society.

Key Issues and Potential Solutions

Some critics believe that Pezeshkian’s presidency might be an effort by the regime’s core to prevent a collapse. The absence of about 37 million eligible voters on election day sent a clear message about the population’s lack of faith in realizing their demands within the current regime.

If Pezeshkian is entrusted with the government, he must be given the freedom to implement his promises without interference, especially from hardliners. Deescalation with the US and European powers, avoiding overreliance on Russia and China, and reopening the economy through foreign investment can bring economic benefits to the Iranian people and ensure the regime’s continuity.

It remains to be seen whether Pezeshkian will be allowed to make significant changes in practice and whether he can navigate the complexities of Iranian politics effectively.

Conclusion

Politics in Iran is complex, and last-minute turnarounds are not uncommon. The outcome of the presidential election and the subsequent governance will have significant implications for Iran’s domestic stability and international relations.

Babak Kamiar is the Head of the Persian Service at Euronews.

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