The Far-Right’s Rise in France: Parliamentary Elections Looming

The latest poll indicates that the far-right in France holds approximately 36% of the vote as the country gears up for the upcoming parliamentary elections. The initial round of voting is scheduled for this Sunday, with the subsequent round set for July 7th. If the National Rally emerges victorious, France will witness its first far-right government since the dark days of Nazi occupation during World War II.

Despite the growing support for the far-right, President Emmanuel Macron has affirmed that he will not relinquish his position before the conclusion of his term in 2027.

An Ifop Fiducial survey suggests that the National Rally is poised to secure around 36% of the votes, while the Popular Front coalition, comprising centrists, leftists, and Greens, is projected to garner about 28%. Macron’s center-right party is expected to capture approximately 20% of the vote.

For a party to secure a majority in the 577-seat parliament, they must clinch at least 289 seats. The National Rally is anticipated to secure between 260 and 295 seats, indicating a significant potential shift in the political landscape.

The surging popularity of the far-right can be attributed to a sense of insecurity among the populace. Additionally, with France’s political climate deeply polarized, forming a coalition in parliament may prove challenging if no single party emerges as the clear victor.

• Message from National Rally: During a recent TV debate, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella of the National Rally conveyed a straightforward message to voters, highlighting concerns about law enforcement and the perceived strength of the state.
• Anticipated Turnout: With the stakes high for what could be a historic election, voter turnout is expected to be robust. While some are determined to see the far-right take the reins, others are equally resolute in their efforts to prevent such an outcome.

Cohabitation of Power

With President Macron’s party facing an uphill battle in the elections, a scenario of cohabitation is likely to materialize, necessitating the appointment of a prime minister from an opposing party. Should the National Rally emerge victorious, Jordan Bardella is poised to become France’s next prime minister.

During a period of cohabitation, where the president and prime minister hail from different political factions, the government’s dynamics undergo a notable shift. The last instance of cohabitation in France was witnessed under conservative President Jacques Chirac and Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin from 1997 to 2002.

While the president retains certain powers in domains such as foreign policy, European affairs, and defense, the prime minister assumes a pivotal role in leading the government and shaping legislative initiatives. In the event of cohabitation, the prime minister’s policies take precedence, shaping the country’s direction.

Despite the president’s diminished influence domestically during cohabitation, they maintain authority over critical areas such as defense and foreign policy. Tensions may arise between the president and prime minister, especially concerning divergent views on key policies.

In navigating the complexities of cohabitation, past presidents have managed to find common ground with the prime minister to present a unified front on international platforms. However, the contrasting ideologies of the far-right and the leftist coalition could pose challenges in maintaining coherence on foreign policy and defense matters.

While the constitution designates the president as the head of the military, it is the prime minister who wields authority over the armed forces. In diplomatic affairs as well, the president’s scope of influence is notably constrained during cohabitation.

As France braces for a potential shift in power dynamics, the outcome of the parliamentary elections and the subsequent implications of cohabitation remain pivotal in shaping the country’s future trajectory.