Iran’s Advancement Towards Nuclear Weapons

Amid the global focus on conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, Iran has made significant strides towards the capability to produce nuclear weapons. Recently, the country has installed 1,400 advanced centrifuges in a deeply buried facility, rendering it nearly impervious to bunker-busting bombs.

The technological upgrade is accompanied by a concerning shift in Iran’s rhetoric. Some members of the ruling elite are veering away from the long-held claim that the nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes. Instead, they are beginning to advocate for the possession of nuclear weapons, citing recent missile exchanges with Israel as justification for a more potent deterrent.

Insights from American, European, Iranian, and Israeli officials, along with external experts, indicate that Iran has solidified its status as a “threshold” nuclear state, teetering on the brink of weapon development without crossing the line.

Opinions among American officials vary on whether Iran is on the verge of weaponizing its nuclear program or if it will strategically maintain a quasi-weapons capability without openly violating its commitments under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

While Iran now possesses the capacity to produce fuel for multiple nuclear weapons in a short timeframe, the process of fabricating this fuel into deliverable warheads could take around 18 months. This timeline factors in the missile capabilities demonstrated by Iran in recent conflicts with Israel.