France’s Far-Right Surge: Macron’s Bold Response and Electoral Gambit

Sunday’s European Elections Shake Up France

Sunday’s European elections caused a stir in France as far-right parties made significant gains. The National Rally is poised to secure around 31% of the votes, surpassing President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, which garnered 15%. Macron swiftly responded to the results by announcing the dissolution of the National Assembly, paving the way for snap legislative elections on 30 June and 7 July. This bold move, reminiscent of King Arthur’s testing of the gods’ trust with Excalibur, last occurred in 1997.

Macron’s decision to call for new legislative elections has been described as bold, reckless, and desperate. However, it is a calculated risk with potentially higher rewards than maintaining the status quo. Despite concerns, it is unlikely that the far right will emerge victorious in the French legislative elections.

Macron’s Strategic Gamble

By swiftly responding to the European election results, Macron aims to challenge the narrative of the far right’s dominance in France. This proactive approach seeks to mobilize voters and demonstrate that the European election outcomes do not fully reflect the broader political sentiment in the country. Macron’s pro-European stance could help counter the far right’s momentum not only in France but also on the European and global stages.

An analysis of past voting patterns reveals a significant drop in support for far-right parties when transitioning from European to national elections. Macron is banking on the fact that the National Rally will not be able to attract an additional 2.5 million voters in such a short timeframe.

Challenges Faced by Far-Right Parties in French Elections

The two-round electoral system in French legislative elections poses a significant challenge to far-right parties. While these parties may perform well in the initial round, the “Republican Front” strategy often sees voters unite behind more moderate candidates in the second round to prevent a far-right victory. Additionally, the localized nature of French parliamentary elections favors parties with broad, evenly spread support, which the National Rally may struggle to achieve.

Furthermore, economic issues and the perceived impact of the European Parliament on daily life contribute to protest votes in EU elections, with fewer consequences compared to national elections. Macron’s party’s strength in economic matters may sway undecided voters towards moderation in national elections.

Potential Outcomes of Macron’s Strategy

If Macron’s strategy succeeds, it could challenge the narrative of the far right’s dominance and mobilize voters against this trend. However, if the National Rally were to win, it would mark a significant shift in French politics and governance. The party would face challenges in governing effectively and would be closely scrutinized in the lead-up to the 2027 elections.

President Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call for new legislative elections is a calculated move with far-reaching implications. Whether it succeeds or not, it is set to make history and shape the political landscape of France and Europe.

Pierre-Alexandre Balland is Chief Data Scientist at the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank.
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