Arriving in Lebanon: A Mixed Blessing

I hear the cheerful voice of a child exclaiming, “On est arrivés au Liban” — we have arrived in Lebanon. I can vividly imagine the child’s beaming face peering through the airplane window as our Transavia flight gently lands in Beirut, the vibrant capital of Lebanon. It’s mid-July, and the aircraft is bustling with families. Most passengers are Lebanese expatriates returning from Europe, eager to reconnect with their homeland for summer vacations. However, their excitement is tinged with the reality of change.

A young woman in her thirties, originally from Tripoli but now residing in Australia, shares her perspective: “We are here for 10 days to see our relatives. We also traveled to Europe. Life is good where we are now.” When asked about the ongoing tensions at the border, she responds, “It’s a mix of reasons. The financial situation in the country plays a significant role.” Yet, no one anticipated the turmoil that would soon unfold.

The Unfolding Crisis

Just days later, chaos erupts. A rocket attack on the Druze town of Majdal Shams in Northern Israel tragically claims the lives of 12 children, igniting a fierce Israeli response. Although Hezbollah is blamed for the attack, the militant group vehemently denies responsibility. Calls for an independent investigation come from various quarters, including EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.

The following Tuesday, Israel strikes back, targeting Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s high-ranking commanders. The assault hits Haret Hreik, a suburb of Beirut known as a Hezbollah stronghold. In the wake of these events, hundreds of flights to and from Beirut are canceled, and numerous embassies issue warnings to their citizens, advising them to avoid travel to the Lebanese capital.

Fortunately, I had departed the country before these flight disruptions began, but I can’t help but think of the families I encountered on that plane. Will they manage to return home safely to Australia? Where are they now?

The Human Toll

As evening descends over Beirut, I reach out to my friend Mariam, an Arabic language teacher residing in the city. “I am fine,” she reassures me, although her tone carries a hint of distress. “But one of my uncles was injured in the explosion. I hope it’s nothing serious.” Reports indicate that at least five people have died in the Haret Hreik attack, with several others suffering injuries. Hezbollah has yet to confirm Shukr’s death, only stating that he was present in the targeted building.

Rami Khouri, a fellow at the American University of Beirut, offers insight: “After 20-25 years of continuous military exchanges among Hezbollah, Hamas, Israel, and others, they understand that this cycle doesn’t yield any solutions. None desire a full-scale war.” Yet, he warns, “What if a broader conflict is inadvertently triggered?” He reflects on past instances, noting, “We witnessed a controlled response when Iran previously attacked Israel. Very few casualties occurred then.“

“It’s not a game; it’s a serious situation,” Khouri explains, “but it resembles a scripted drama. We remain in a phase of prearranged responses from both sides.”

Resilience Amidst Uncertainty

Before leaving Beirut just days prior to the attack, I was struck by the resilience of the locals. Their sense of community and ability to adapt to the unpredictability of life were truly inspiring. However, I wonder how long they can maintain this spirit, constantly balancing memories of past devastations with the present. Khouri believes that if regional tensions escalate, we may not see a full-blown war akin to the destruction witnessed in 2006.

However, the situation remains volatile. Just hours after the assault in Southern Beirut, Hamas confirms the death of its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in an Israeli attack in Tehran. Within hours, two key figures in Iran’s network are eliminated, further escalating tensions.

Even before analyzing the implications of these events, it’s evident that Haniyeh’s assassination has shifted the dynamics. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vows “harsh punishment” for Israel, prompting the UN to convene an emergency meeting. This escalation comes on the heels of rising hope for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, only to be dashed as the situation spirals out of control.

Impending Conflict

“The likelihood of avoiding a broader conflict is increasingly unrealistic,” warns Michael Young, an analyst specializing in Lebanese affairs. “Actors involved have backed themselves into a corner, where they feel compelled to act to maintain their deterrence.” He elaborates, “Israel would prefer to draw the US into conflict with Iran,” recalling previous attempts to provoke American involvement, such as the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus last April.

Young emphasizes that Israel cannot engage Iran and its allies independently; they require US support. Yet, he notes, “The US administration seems to lack influence over Israel at this juncture. What I observe is chaos in Washington.” He warns that a full-scale war could devastate Lebanon, stating, “It would not only be economic destruction; it would dismantle the very fabric of society, making recovery almost impossible.”

A Nation’s Struggle for Peace

Having endured a 15-year civil war and the 2006 conflict with Israel, Lebanon has become accustomed to navigating a myriad of crises. The nation is still reeling from the catastrophic port explosion that rocked Beirut in 2020, and it now grapples with one of its most severe economic downturns. The fallout from the war in Ukraine has exacerbated the situation, resulting in a staggering 50% drop in GDP and plunging 80% of the population into poverty.

Once reliant on tourism as a key economic driver, the industry now languishes. I recall a taxi driver lamenting, “There are no more tourists; they have vanished.” This sentiment resonates with me as I stroll through Rue Gouraud, a historic street in the heart of Beirut known for its vibrant dining scene. One establishment, “Le Chef,” founded in 1967 by François Bassil, stands as a testament to Lebanon’s resilience. Having survived the civil war and the recent port explosion, the restaurant remains a beloved fixture in the city.

Charbel Bassil, François’ son and current owner, greets each patron with warmth. It’s lunchtime, and the restaurant is bustling. “We live day by day, relying on our local clientele,” he shares. “But ultimately, all we desire is peace and for tourists to return. Business is down by 80%.”

Community and Hope

As I leave “Le Chef“, I encounter a young model posing for photos. Her name is Fatima, a 20-year-old influencer full of optimism. “The economic crisis is troubling,” she admits, “but we continue to live our lives; resilience is part of our identity.”

Joseph, the owner of a newly opened bakery called “Levant“, offers a different perspective. He returned to Lebanon from France last autumn, just before the outbreak of conflict in Gaza. “Despite the risks, I’ve never considered reversing my decision,” he states, acknowledging the hardships faced by his employees, some of whom have lost homes and relatives due to bombings in the south. “The sense of community in Lebanon is unique,” he adds.

The rich tapestry of cultures and diverse religious communities is one of Lebanon’s primary attractions, yet political stability remains elusive. The inability to bridge differences has impeded the creation of a government that truly represents all Lebanese citizens. As the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza fades, Young asserts, “We are all bearing the consequences of Netanyahu’s political survival.”

A Call for Understanding

On Thursday, just hours after Haniyeh’s assassination, attention turns to a speech delivered by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. His remarks hint at a deeper understanding of both Iran and Hezbollah’s responses to Israel’s recent actions. The message is unmistakable. Observers note a significant shift in Nasrallah’s tone, which has taken on a more assertive edge in recent weeks. “Be happy for a short while, and you will cry for a long time,” he warns the Israeli populace. “We have stepped into a new phase across all fronts.”

Nasrallah characterizes the assault on Beirut’s Southern suburbs as an outright act of aggression by Israel, rather than a simple retaliatory measure. Some interpret his statements as veiled hints of a potential strike against Israel, mirroring Israel’s own tactics in Lebanon and Iran.

In a moment of urgency, I call Mariam to gauge the mood among her peers. “Yes,” she admits, “people are genuinely worried now, and I won’t sugarcoat it.” Anxiety fills the air as I reflect on my conversation with Joseph, who embodies resilience and a newfound happiness in Lebanon. He expresses a desire for the country to be remembered for something beyond conflict. Most poignantly, I recall the sticker adorning his café’s entrance: “See you in Beirut, whatever happens.” This sentiment encapsulates the enduring spirit of the Lebanese people, who continue to hope for peace amidst uncertainty.