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Market Anticipation Ahead of U.S. Economic Data Release

Explore how market sentiment is shifting in anticipation of upcoming U.S. economic data releases. Understand the potential impacts on investments and trading strategies as analysts and investors prepare for significant market movements.

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Market Anticipation Ahead of U.S. Economic Data

Wednesday is poised to be a pivotal day for financial markets, particularly in the realm of cryptocurrencies, as traders await the release of lesser-known U.S. economic data that may paint a bleak picture of the economy. Despite this, bitcoin (BTC) investors should approach with caution, as the data could potentially misrepresent the actual economic conditions, according to insights from a prominent investment bank.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to unveil a preliminary estimate for the benchmark revision of monthly nonfarm payrolls, covering the period from April 2023 to March 2024. Historically, this report is released during the summer or fall of each year, and observers are predicting that the forthcoming update will indicate a slower rate of job growth than previously reported.

As highlighted by SignalPlus, a technology firm dedicated to democratizing crypto options, “On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will receive revised job growth figures, which may reveal that job growth from last year through early this year was weaker than previously estimated.”

Morgan Stanley anticipates a significant downward revision, estimating that payrolls could be adjusted downward by 600,000, which translates to an average reduction of approximately 50,000 jobs per month over the past twelve months. Such a substantial revision could reignite recession fears, leading to a migration away from riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, similar to the market behavior observed following the July jobs report released earlier this month.

However, Goldman Sachs cautions that the anticipated downward revision may not fully reflect the underlying economic reality. The firm suggests, “Nonfarm payroll growth averaged 250,000 per month over the period from April 2023 to March 2024. While next week’s revision could lower that pace to between 165,000 to 200,000 per month, we believe that part of this adjustment may be erroneous. The ‘true’ rate of employment growth during this time frame was likely closer to 200,000 to 240,000 per month,” according to their Economics Research team in a note to clients dated August 16.

The team elaborated that this data is derived from the quarterly consensus of employment and wages (QECW), which relies on unemployment insurance records. Notably, these records do not account for illegal immigrants, who have significantly contributed to job growth in recent years.

Following the BLS report, market attention will shift to the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting in July, scheduled for release at 18:00 UTC. Morgan Stanley expressed its interest in these minutes, stating, “We will look for insights into why the FOMC opted to hold off on considering monetary policy easing until September and whether a 50 basis point rate cut was part of the discussion.”

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Bhutan’s Strategic Investment in Bitcoin: A New Era for the Himalayan Kingdom

Explore how Bhutan is embracing Bitcoin as a strategic investment, marking a transformative shift for the Himalayan kingdom. Discover the implications of this move on its economy, sustainability, and future in the digital age.

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Buddhist Kingdom’s Bold Move into Bitcoin

A stunning landlocked nation nestled between India and China, Bhutan has made headlines by accumulating significant bitcoin (BTC) holdings totaling over $780 million in recent years. This amount represents nearly one-third of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), positioning Bhutan as the holder of the fourth-largest state-owned stash of BTC, as revealed by the on-chain analytics tool Arkham.

Known for its unique approach to governance, Bhutan emphasizes the happiness of its fewer than 900,000 citizens as a more meaningful metric of well-being than traditional economic indicators. This Himalayan kingdom has become the second nation, following El Salvador, to officially embrace BTC as part of its national strategy, incorporating it into the state-owned Druk Holdings fund.

According to Arkham, Bhutan has established bitcoin mining facilities across various locations, with the most significant operation situated on the site of the now-defunct Education City project. Unlike many governments that acquire BTC through asset seizures related to law enforcement, Bhutan’s holdings have originated from extensive bitcoin mining activities, which have seen a remarkable increase since early 2023.

These mining operations are likely connected to Bitdeer (BTDR), a prominent player in the cryptocurrency mining sector. In 2023, the Singapore-based firm announced its collaboration with the Bhutanese government to develop cryptocurrency mining operations in Southeast Asia, successfully raising over $500 million for this ambitious venture. Following this announcement, Bitdeer disclosed that it had completed the first phase of a 100 megawatt (MW) mining facility.

Looking ahead, Bitdeer announced plans to expand Bhutan’s mining capacity to a staggering 600 MW by 2025, reflecting the growing significance of this initiative.

Despite its small geographic size, even smaller than Switzerland, Bhutan faces challenges such as limited economic diversification and an underdeveloped private sector. The nation primarily relies on sectors like hydropower, tourism, and agriculture to generate revenue. In 2022, Bhutan’s GDP was recorded at just under $3 billion, approximately half that of the Maldives.

To bolster its economy, Druk Holdings is exploring opportunities across various sectors. The organization’s website highlights “digital assets” as a key focus area in its technology-driven investment strategy, which also includes projects in hydropower and emerging digital realms like the metaverse.

Recent activities in the Druk wallets, as monitored by Arkham, indicate a flurry of deposit and withdrawal transactions in recent weeks. The fund has received multiple deposits of up to 2 BTC from Foundry, another mining entity, as well as from other unidentified bitcoin addresses during the past week. Additionally, Druk Holdings has periodically transferred bitcoin to various addresses, including crypto exchanges. One notable transaction from early July involved a transfer of over $25 million worth of BTC sent to the crypto exchange Kraken, suggesting that it was likely sold to capitalize on market conditions.

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Bitcoin and Crypto Markets React to Anticipated Federal Rate Cuts

Explore how Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are responding to the anticipated Federal rate cuts. Discover the implications for investors and the broader financial landscape in this insightful analysis.

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Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Await Federal Rate Cuts

Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency markets have seen minimal fluctuations over the past 24 hours as traders remain cautious ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. This meeting is particularly significant, as officials are anticipated to announce the first interest rate cuts in four years. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just below $58,500, specifically at $58,480, reflecting a relatively stable performance. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a benchmark for the largest digital assets, has experienced a slight increase, trading above the 1,800 mark.

In terms of daily activity, inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have amounted to $12.9 million, with a substantial portion directed towards BlackRock’s IBIT. Analysts widely expect the Fed to unveil a rate cut on September 18, signaling the beginning of a potential easing cycle that has historically provided support for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

As of Tuesday morning in Asia, the 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices indicate that traders perceive a 67% likelihood of a significant 50 basis points rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.7%-5%. This is an increase from Monday’s implied probability of 50% and a notable rise from the 25% probability reported a month ago. On Polymarket, traders are assigning a 57% chance of a decrease exceeding 50 basis points, alongside a 41% chance of a 25 basis points cut.

Meanwhile, the overall market remains relatively stable. Noteworthy movements have been observed, such as XRP rising by 3.5%, SUI increasing by 2.5%, and Fantom’s FTM surging by 10.5%, buoyed by positive market sentiment surrounding its forthcoming rebranding to Sonic.

Trump’s World Liberty Financial to Introduce WLFI Token

In other news, the team behind World Liberty Financial, a project receiving endorsement from former President Donald Trump and his family, has announced the launch of a governance token. However, it is crucial to note that this token will only be available to accredited U.S. investors. During a livestream that lasted over two hours, the team highlighted that the token is intended for governance participation rather than for economic profit and did not disclose a specific launch date during the X Spaces stream.

Throughout the livestream, Trump himself did not specifically mention the token or provide an endorsement. Instead, he reiterated his general views on cryptocurrency policy, much of which echoed his previous public statements, including those made at the recent Bitcoin Conference held in Nashville.

Figure Markets Launches Exchange with Real Estate-Backed Yields

In a groundbreaking development within the crypto space, Figure Markets has announced the launch of its exchange, coinciding with the Token2049 event in Singapore. Founded by Mike Cagney, a co-founder of SoFi, Figure Markets introduces an innovative method for generating yields for users who store their cryptocurrency on the platform.

According to a recent release, Figure Markets claims it can offer returns of up to 8% for non-USD and stablecoin balances. This is achieved by leveraging a fund backed by real-world assets, particularly home equity loans. The operational model involves traders depositing their funds into Figure Markets, which are then pooled and lent to Figure Technologies for the issuance of secured home equity loans. The interest paid by borrowers on these loans creates a spread that not only covers operational costs but also provides returns to investors. These investors benefit from dual recourse protections, daily liquidity, and interest payments that accrue based on the duration of their investments.

While Real World Assets (RWAs) are progressively becoming a noteworthy aspect of the cryptocurrency industry, there are still very few applications that seek to derive yield from these assets to support their operations. Prior to the launch of Figure in 2023, Cagney had withdrawn the company’s bid for a U.S. federal bank charter amid regulatory scrutiny, opting instead to pursue partnerships with established banks.

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Meta Bans Russian Media Outlets Amid Disinformation Concerns

In response to rising disinformation concerns, Meta has imposed bans on several Russian media outlets. This decision highlights the ongoing battle against misinformation and the platform’s commitment to ensuring accurate information for its users.

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Meta Takes Strong Action Against Russian Media Outlets

On Monday, Meta announced a significant initiative to prohibit Russian media outlets, including the state-funded television network RT, from utilizing its platforms. This decision comes in light of ongoing scrutiny in the United States regarding these outlets’ involvement in covert influence campaigns designed to manipulate online discourse across various social media platforms.

Meta, the parent company of popular applications such as Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, stated that the ban would be implemented in the coming days. This decisive action marks an escalation in the ongoing efforts to combat Russian state media actors, which U.S. intelligence officials have identified as key players in disinformation operations that span the globe, infiltrating the world’s largest social networking sites.

In a formal statement, Meta expressed, “After thorough consideration, we have expanded our current enforcement measures against Russian state media outlets. Rossiya Segodnya, RT, and other related entities are now prohibited from our applications worldwide due to their involvement in foreign interference activities.”

Recently, U.S. authorities have tightened their grip on RT, particularly for its attempts to meddle in the upcoming presidential election scheduled for November. On Friday, the United States, in conjunction with Canada and Britain, accused RT of functioning as a conduit for Russian intelligence agencies. They announced new sanctions aimed at curtailing international funding sources that support disinformation campaigns globally.

This crackdown follows the federal indictment of two RT employees, who allegedly funneled at least $9.7 million to finance American podcasters on Tenet Media, a video-streaming service based in Tennessee. The goal was to amplify the Kremlin’s propaganda and undermine the integrity of the American democratic process.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken emphasized the broader implications of these tactics, stating, “We’re revealing how Russia employs similar strategies globally.” He further noted, “The Russian weaponization of disinformation to destabilize and polarize free and open societies is a challenge that impacts every corner of the world.”

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