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Bitcoin’s Death Cross: Analyzing the Impact of Japanese Monetary Policy on Cryptocurrency Markets

Explore the implications of Bitcoin’s Death Cross in relation to Japanese monetary policy. This analysis delves into how shifts in monetary strategies influence cryptocurrency markets and investor behavior.

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Bitcoin’s Death Cross: A Misleading Indicator?

As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches what is known as a death cross—a bearish technical signal indicating potential price declines—there are indications that this pattern may once again defy expectations and signal a resurgence in bullish momentum, similar to the scenario witnessed in September 2023. This shift in sentiment is largely attributed to recent comments from the influential governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Shinichi Uchida.

On Wednesday, Uchida stated that the central bank would refrain from increasing borrowing costs during periods of market instability, a decision that is likely to diminish the likelihood of a continued unwinding of “yen carry trades.” These trades have historically contributed to risk aversion in various assets, including cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

Uchida emphasized the need for continued monetary easing, saying, “As we’re seeing sharp volatility in domestic and overseas financial markets, it’s necessary to maintain current levels of monetary easing for the time being.” This announcement has contributed to an environment of reduced downside risk for Bitcoin, even as the ominous death cross looms on the horizon.

In the wake of Uchida’s remarks, Bitcoin demonstrated resilience, briefly surging past the $57,300 mark. This uptick coincided with the Japanese yen (JPY) depreciating to 148 per U.S. dollar (USD), down from 145 per USD. Additionally, Japan’s equity index, the Nikkei, experienced a notable rise of 4%, signaling a potential reset in risk appetite, as futures linked to the S&P 500 climbed 0.8%.

According to a pseudonymous market observer known as Global Macro, “The BOJ struck the ‘Yen put,’ and the Nikkei will be driving the Nasdaq and S&P to their pre-selloff levels.” This sentiment underscores the interconnectedness of global financial markets and the influence of Japanese monetary policy on broader risk assets.

The yen carry trade—an investment strategy that involves borrowing in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies and risk assets—has gained traction in recent years. This popularity can be attributed to the BOJ’s maintenance of near-zero interest rates, while other central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have rapidly raised borrowing costs to combat inflation.

However, last Wednesday marked a pivotal shift, as the Japanese central bank signaled a departure from its long-standing ultra-easy monetary policy by raising interest rates for the first time in 17 years. This hawkish maneuver triggered a swift unwinding of carry trades, resulting in widespread risk aversion that saw Bitcoin plummet from $66,000 to $50,000 within just five days.

Investment strategist Andy Constan, CEO of Damped Spring Advisors, elaborated on this phenomenon, stating, “By July 16th, the equity markets and many other risky asset markets peaked. For whatever reason, these asset markets began to sell off. As the sell-off continued, recent entrants into the YCT [yen carry trade] saw their assets falling, and to be clear, that is almost always the driver of unwinds. But worse, the yen began rallying slowly. That began the unwind.”

Constan further explained the mechanics of this unwinding process, noting, “The unwind of the trade results in inelastic price moving flow to buy yen and sell risky assets. The sale of the risky asset also impacts the much bigger set of levered investors who don’t have any yen exposure at all, and they get margin called as well.” This complex interplay of market dynamics illustrates the intricate relationships between currency movements, investment strategies, and asset price fluctuations.

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Bhutan’s Strategic Investment in Bitcoin: A New Era for the Himalayan Kingdom

Explore how Bhutan is embracing Bitcoin as a strategic investment, marking a transformative shift for the Himalayan kingdom. Discover the implications of this move on its economy, sustainability, and future in the digital age.

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Buddhist Kingdom’s Bold Move into Bitcoin

A stunning landlocked nation nestled between India and China, Bhutan has made headlines by accumulating significant bitcoin (BTC) holdings totaling over $780 million in recent years. This amount represents nearly one-third of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), positioning Bhutan as the holder of the fourth-largest state-owned stash of BTC, as revealed by the on-chain analytics tool Arkham.

Known for its unique approach to governance, Bhutan emphasizes the happiness of its fewer than 900,000 citizens as a more meaningful metric of well-being than traditional economic indicators. This Himalayan kingdom has become the second nation, following El Salvador, to officially embrace BTC as part of its national strategy, incorporating it into the state-owned Druk Holdings fund.

According to Arkham, Bhutan has established bitcoin mining facilities across various locations, with the most significant operation situated on the site of the now-defunct Education City project. Unlike many governments that acquire BTC through asset seizures related to law enforcement, Bhutan’s holdings have originated from extensive bitcoin mining activities, which have seen a remarkable increase since early 2023.

These mining operations are likely connected to Bitdeer (BTDR), a prominent player in the cryptocurrency mining sector. In 2023, the Singapore-based firm announced its collaboration with the Bhutanese government to develop cryptocurrency mining operations in Southeast Asia, successfully raising over $500 million for this ambitious venture. Following this announcement, Bitdeer disclosed that it had completed the first phase of a 100 megawatt (MW) mining facility.

Looking ahead, Bitdeer announced plans to expand Bhutan’s mining capacity to a staggering 600 MW by 2025, reflecting the growing significance of this initiative.

Despite its small geographic size, even smaller than Switzerland, Bhutan faces challenges such as limited economic diversification and an underdeveloped private sector. The nation primarily relies on sectors like hydropower, tourism, and agriculture to generate revenue. In 2022, Bhutan’s GDP was recorded at just under $3 billion, approximately half that of the Maldives.

To bolster its economy, Druk Holdings is exploring opportunities across various sectors. The organization’s website highlights “digital assets” as a key focus area in its technology-driven investment strategy, which also includes projects in hydropower and emerging digital realms like the metaverse.

Recent activities in the Druk wallets, as monitored by Arkham, indicate a flurry of deposit and withdrawal transactions in recent weeks. The fund has received multiple deposits of up to 2 BTC from Foundry, another mining entity, as well as from other unidentified bitcoin addresses during the past week. Additionally, Druk Holdings has periodically transferred bitcoin to various addresses, including crypto exchanges. One notable transaction from early July involved a transfer of over $25 million worth of BTC sent to the crypto exchange Kraken, suggesting that it was likely sold to capitalize on market conditions.

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Bitcoin and Crypto Markets React to Anticipated Federal Rate Cuts

Explore how Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are responding to the anticipated Federal rate cuts. Discover the implications for investors and the broader financial landscape in this insightful analysis.

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Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Await Federal Rate Cuts

Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency markets have seen minimal fluctuations over the past 24 hours as traders remain cautious ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. This meeting is particularly significant, as officials are anticipated to announce the first interest rate cuts in four years. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just below $58,500, specifically at $58,480, reflecting a relatively stable performance. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a benchmark for the largest digital assets, has experienced a slight increase, trading above the 1,800 mark.

In terms of daily activity, inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have amounted to $12.9 million, with a substantial portion directed towards BlackRock’s IBIT. Analysts widely expect the Fed to unveil a rate cut on September 18, signaling the beginning of a potential easing cycle that has historically provided support for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

As of Tuesday morning in Asia, the 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices indicate that traders perceive a 67% likelihood of a significant 50 basis points rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.7%-5%. This is an increase from Monday’s implied probability of 50% and a notable rise from the 25% probability reported a month ago. On Polymarket, traders are assigning a 57% chance of a decrease exceeding 50 basis points, alongside a 41% chance of a 25 basis points cut.

Meanwhile, the overall market remains relatively stable. Noteworthy movements have been observed, such as XRP rising by 3.5%, SUI increasing by 2.5%, and Fantom’s FTM surging by 10.5%, buoyed by positive market sentiment surrounding its forthcoming rebranding to Sonic.

Trump’s World Liberty Financial to Introduce WLFI Token

In other news, the team behind World Liberty Financial, a project receiving endorsement from former President Donald Trump and his family, has announced the launch of a governance token. However, it is crucial to note that this token will only be available to accredited U.S. investors. During a livestream that lasted over two hours, the team highlighted that the token is intended for governance participation rather than for economic profit and did not disclose a specific launch date during the X Spaces stream.

Throughout the livestream, Trump himself did not specifically mention the token or provide an endorsement. Instead, he reiterated his general views on cryptocurrency policy, much of which echoed his previous public statements, including those made at the recent Bitcoin Conference held in Nashville.

Figure Markets Launches Exchange with Real Estate-Backed Yields

In a groundbreaking development within the crypto space, Figure Markets has announced the launch of its exchange, coinciding with the Token2049 event in Singapore. Founded by Mike Cagney, a co-founder of SoFi, Figure Markets introduces an innovative method for generating yields for users who store their cryptocurrency on the platform.

According to a recent release, Figure Markets claims it can offer returns of up to 8% for non-USD and stablecoin balances. This is achieved by leveraging a fund backed by real-world assets, particularly home equity loans. The operational model involves traders depositing their funds into Figure Markets, which are then pooled and lent to Figure Technologies for the issuance of secured home equity loans. The interest paid by borrowers on these loans creates a spread that not only covers operational costs but also provides returns to investors. These investors benefit from dual recourse protections, daily liquidity, and interest payments that accrue based on the duration of their investments.

While Real World Assets (RWAs) are progressively becoming a noteworthy aspect of the cryptocurrency industry, there are still very few applications that seek to derive yield from these assets to support their operations. Prior to the launch of Figure in 2023, Cagney had withdrawn the company’s bid for a U.S. federal bank charter amid regulatory scrutiny, opting instead to pursue partnerships with established banks.

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Meta Bans Russian Media Outlets Amid Disinformation Concerns

In response to rising disinformation concerns, Meta has imposed bans on several Russian media outlets. This decision highlights the ongoing battle against misinformation and the platform’s commitment to ensuring accurate information for its users.

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Meta Takes Strong Action Against Russian Media Outlets

On Monday, Meta announced a significant initiative to prohibit Russian media outlets, including the state-funded television network RT, from utilizing its platforms. This decision comes in light of ongoing scrutiny in the United States regarding these outlets’ involvement in covert influence campaigns designed to manipulate online discourse across various social media platforms.

Meta, the parent company of popular applications such as Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, stated that the ban would be implemented in the coming days. This decisive action marks an escalation in the ongoing efforts to combat Russian state media actors, which U.S. intelligence officials have identified as key players in disinformation operations that span the globe, infiltrating the world’s largest social networking sites.

In a formal statement, Meta expressed, “After thorough consideration, we have expanded our current enforcement measures against Russian state media outlets. Rossiya Segodnya, RT, and other related entities are now prohibited from our applications worldwide due to their involvement in foreign interference activities.”

Recently, U.S. authorities have tightened their grip on RT, particularly for its attempts to meddle in the upcoming presidential election scheduled for November. On Friday, the United States, in conjunction with Canada and Britain, accused RT of functioning as a conduit for Russian intelligence agencies. They announced new sanctions aimed at curtailing international funding sources that support disinformation campaigns globally.

This crackdown follows the federal indictment of two RT employees, who allegedly funneled at least $9.7 million to finance American podcasters on Tenet Media, a video-streaming service based in Tennessee. The goal was to amplify the Kremlin’s propaganda and undermine the integrity of the American democratic process.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken emphasized the broader implications of these tactics, stating, “We’re revealing how Russia employs similar strategies globally.” He further noted, “The Russian weaponization of disinformation to destabilize and polarize free and open societies is a challenge that impacts every corner of the world.”

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