Divisions Among French Citizens on Foreign Policy

French citizens are not just divided on domestic issues; they also have differing opinions on foreign policy. If President Emmanuel Macron and a National Rally-led government coexist, there is a significant risk that the situation in Ukraine will become a contentious political issue. This potential conflict arises not from a lack of national consensus on supporting Ukraine — there is strong agreement — but from differing opinions on the future course of action regarding the war. If these differences become politicized, they could undermine the current unity around supporting Kyiv. Internal disputes over Ukraine policy could have detrimental effects on EU cohesion, Ukraine’s prospects, and, ultimately, the security of both France and Europe.

End Game Divides the French

Over the last two years, the French public has largely shared the same “élan du coeur” as many other Europeans, supporting Macron’s shift towards backing Ukraine following his earlier attempts to balance relations between Ukraine and Russia in early 2022. The consensus around supporting Ukraine and supplying it with weapons has grown so strong that all three major parties in the upcoming French elections are in agreement. The New Popular Front, representing the left, has taken a firm stance on this issue, particularly concerning the provision of essential military equipment. Meanwhile, Jordan Bardella of the National Rally has asserted that France must continue to provide Ukraine “the means to defend itself.”

However, when it comes to the end game, the French populace is sharply divided. In a recent multi-country poll, responses were almost evenly split into three categories regarding Europe’s future actions concerning the war in Ukraine. Approximately 30% of respondents expressed a desire for Europe to support Ukraine in reclaiming territories currently occupied by Russia. In contrast, around 36% preferred that Europe encourage Ukraine to negotiate a peace settlement. The remaining 34% were either unsure, indifferent, or did not align with either viewpoint. The sentiment among Ukrainians is clear: they wish to continue fighting, believing they can achieve victory with sufficient military aid from their allies.

French President Emmanuel Macron, right, embraces Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a joint press conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris on June 7, 2024. This division among French citizens appears to be solidifying, as it was already evident in our January poll.

Macron has attempted to shift public opinion. In February, he suggested that European nations might eventually need to deploy ground troops. He reiterated this point in a subsequent television interview, emphasizing the threats posed by Russia. However, his somber assessment has not succeeded in galvanizing the French public around the idea that Europe should actively support Ukraine in reclaiming its territory — in fact, the proportion of people holding this view has decreased from 35% to 30% over the past five months. At the same time, the percentage of the French public who perceive their country as being at war with Russia has risen from 24% to 32% over the last nine months, making France one of the European countries with the highest levels of such perception. Still, Macron has managed to familiarize the public with alternative forms of military support: 54% of French citizens now express openness to deploying French troops for technical, non-combat assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Bickering Allies Won’t Help Ukraine

Throughout Europe, there is a notable split regarding whether to support Ukraine in military conflict or encourage it to negotiate. Ukrainians remain resolute: they are committed to fighting, convinced that victory is within reach, contingent on receiving adequate armaments from their allies.

If the National Rally gains power on July 7, whether independently or in coalition, there may be a gradual shift towards framing French support for Ukraine as “Macron’s war.” If no party succeeds in forming a majority government and the 2027 presidential election approaches, there exists a genuine risk that France’s commitment to Ukraine could become collateral damage. Ukraine cannot afford allies mired in internal disputes; it has already suffered due to the delays such disagreements create. Regardless of the outcome of the legislative elections, it is essential that French backing for Ukraine remains unwavering. As political leaders campaign for public support, it is imperative that they do not succumb to the temptation of using foreign policy issues to deflect criticism, especially if France enters a period of prolonged political instability. Such a move would be a grave error. Ukraine requires steadfast allies, not factions embroiled in petty squabbles.

Currently, there is a shared sentiment across the political spectrum in France regarding the division among voters on whether Europe should support Ukraine in combat or urge it toward negotiations. There is no significant partisan divide on this issue — and there ought not to be.

Who Will Open the Champagne?

In the near future, the upcoming presidential election in the United States will serve as a litmus test for European support for Ukraine. Should a Bardella-led government take shape in Paris alongside a potential Trump victory in America, a shift in the Western approach to Ukraine and Russia seems inevitable. France may not stand alone in altering its stance, as countries like Italy, Greece, Austria, or Hungary exhibit similar public skepticism regarding the depth of European support for Ukraine. However, France’s unequivocal backing for Ukraine — both militarily and politically — has made a discernible impact, fostering unity and encouraging other European nations to maintain solidarity with Kyiv.

If Paris can no longer fulfill this leadership role, other capitals may attempt to fill the void, but such efforts could prove too little, too late. A decline in French support could very well become the turning point that undermines the European consensus against Russian aggression. Should that happen, one can only imagine who will be celebrating such a development.

Celia Belin and Pawel Zerka are Senior Fellows at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
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