The Shifting Political Landscape in Ireland

Until recently, Ireland was bracing itself for a potential political upheaval that could reshape its governance for generations: a government led by the nationalist party Sinn Féin. However, what once seemed to be a foregone conclusion has now turned into an uncertain reality. Rather than dominating the political scene, Sinn Féin finds itself adapting to a rapidly changing environment.

Historically recognized as the political arm of the Provisional Irish Republican Army during the Troubles, Sinn Féin has managed to reinvent itself as a mainstream political force. It has adopted a distinctly leftist and populist stance, which contrasts sharply with the prevailing ideologies of Irish politics.

In the 2020 general election, Sinn Féin secured nearly a quarter of the national vote, outpacing both of the traditional powerhouses, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Following this electoral success, opinion polls frequently indicated that Sinn Féin might be positioned to form a coalition government after the next national elections. Yet, in June of this year, the party’s performance in the European elections, alongside local elections, fell significantly short of expectations, dampening the once widely held belief that it would be leading the government by next year.

In a twist of irony, this decline occurred shortly after Sinn Féin enjoyed a strong showing in Northern Ireland during the British general election on July 4. There, Irish nationalist parties outperformed those advocating for the north’s continued status as part of the UK. Currently, Sinn Féin stands as the largest party in the Northern Irish Assembly, with its regional leader, Michelle O’Neill, making history as the first Irish nationalist to hold the position of First Minister. However, the party’s struggles in the Republic of Ireland, where it seeks to fully unite the island under one state, will undoubtedly be a source of disappointment.

The situation is compounded by emerging signs that Sinn Féin is losing traction with the very communities that have historically formed its base among working-class populations in Ireland’s urban areas.

Revolt on the Right

As a new generation emerges that does not associate Sinn Féin with the violent legacy of the past, the party has begun to attract support from educated, left-leaning, and more affluent young voters. These individuals resonate with Sinn Féin’s progressive stances on critical issues such as climate change, foreign policy (notably regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict), and LGBTQ+ rights. However, while trying to court this demographic, Sinn Féin faces challenges in appealing to its traditional voter base, who are grappling with a severe housing crisis—an issue that has become a defining aspect of Irish politics and has opened avenues for a burgeoning far-right movement.

Although far-right activists have been organizing in Ireland for some time, several extreme and anti-immigration parties have yet to unify under a common banner. Nevertheless, 2023 marked a pivotal moment as these groups successfully capitalized on existing discontent surrounding the perceived strains on society resulting from large-scale immigration, particularly the influx of Ukrainian refugees—approximately 80,000 since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022—as well as asylum seekers from various countries.

While most new arrivals have been welcomed without significant incident, the politics surrounding their accommodation remains complex. The crux of the issue lies in Ireland’s chronic housing shortage, a problem rooted in the financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent years of underinvestment in housing development. The scale of this crisis is staggering: with a population of 5 million, the government’s Housing Commission estimates a shortfall of up to 250,000 homes.

Since the end of COVID-19 restrictions, evictions from private rental properties have surged, and rents have skyrocketed. The government has pledged to build more than 30,000 homes annually to address the housing crisis. However, many Irish families continue to find themselves in temporary accommodations while the housing supply struggles to keep pace with the growing number of new arrivals.

Out in the Streets

In this climate, far-right activists have exploited the housing crisis to incite not only discontent but also violence. A particularly shocking incident occurred in Dublin last November when a man stabbed several individuals, including children, outside a primary school. The alleged assailant, a homeless man of Algerian descent who had lived in Ireland for two decades, triggered violent protests and looting, resulting in around 40 arrests. Many attributed the turmoil to incitement and misinformation spread by far-right influencers, as evidenced by the racist and anti-immigrant chants that echoed during the chaos.

However, this riot was not an isolated event. In March of the same year, a camp housing unhoused migrants in Dublin was attacked and burned down, an act that far-right groups celebrated as a “total Gaelic victory.” Following these violent outbreaks, police have attempted to deter asylum seekers and immigrants from sleeping rough in the city by conducting early morning sweeps, only for new encampments to emerge shortly afterward.

Protests against migrant reception centers and accommodations for asylum seekers have become increasingly common, fueled by right-wing activists and influencers. One of the most notable incidents occurred in Coolock, North Dublin, where a demonstration against a proposed migrant housing center spiraled into clashes with police and resulted in a former factory being set ablaze. The protest was organized by a group identifying as “Coolock Says No,” a slogan adapted by online activists to frame similar unrest in other areas.

‘None of Us Have a Veto’

For Sinn Féin, navigating the rising anger over large-scale refugee arrivals presents a formidable challenge. The right-wing agitators who amplify small protests on social media often intertwine issues of social class and Irish racial identity, merging a long-standing nationalist narrative of working-class uprisings with more overtly racist and ethnonationalist rhetoric, which directly contradicts the liberal social values Sinn Féin has embraced in recent years.

In social media circles rife with these tensions, hashtags such as #IrelandIsFull are being supplanted by ones like #IrelandForTheIrish. Protests against asylum reception centers and housing initiatives are being framed by journalists from lesser-known far-right outlets as part of a burgeoning uprising against the government. Moreover, news stories involving violence or criminal acts by foreigners—especially those of color or Muslim faith—are rapidly circulated, further inflaming sentiments.

The challenge for Sinn Féin lies in balancing their role as the opposition party critiquing government policies, while simultaneously rejecting the knee-jerk, racist backlash against asylum seekers and immigrants. They must also acknowledge that some voters they need are increasingly engaging in what appears to be a social movement, albeit one lacking a unified electoral representation at this stage.

This balancing act was evident during a recent press conference when party leader Mary Lou McDonald was queried by a right-wing journalist about why she did not support giving communities a veto over proposed asylum centers. “I really don’t think it’s helpful for us to get lost in the veto area,” she responded. “What people are looking for is dialogue. They’re also looking for clear information… clarity of information, dialogue, to be listened to. You have your voice, you have to be heard; none of us have a veto. None of us have a veto. That’s not how democratic processes of decision-making and planning work.”

Despite the palpable tension in that exchange, it appears that while the overt anti-asylum and anti-immigration sentiment has made some inroads in local politics, it still lacks a significant foothold at the national parliamentary level. This stands in sharp contrast to other European nations like the UK, France, and Germany, where heavily anti-immigration parties command substantial portions of the national vote without gaining access to governmental power.

On the judicial front, attempts to block accommodations for asylum seekers have not yet gained traction. Recently, a judge dismissed a case aimed at preventing applicants from being housed in a hotel in Dundrum, County Tipperary, which had previously served as temporary housing for Ukrainian refugees. The judge expressed skepticism towards claims that “International Protection Applicants are more likely to be burglars than those staying as guests at the hotel or Ukrainian refugees staying there,” asserting, “I lend no weight to that assertion.”

Furthermore, the High Court in Dublin ruled that the Irish government has violated the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights by failing to provide adequate shelter and basic necessities to asylum seekers, many of whom remain homeless due to a lack of available accommodations.

These rulings are unlikely to quell the growing tensions. Clashes between police and irate residents in various communities are receiving increased coverage in mainstream media, while an online ecosystem of right-wing Irish outlets and influencers continues to expand its audience. All the while, Sinn Féin, which not long ago appeared poised to take the reins of government, grapples with the reality that the socially liberal segment of the younger generation may not suffice to secure their position at the forefront of Irish politics. Furthermore, they face the risk of losing significant portions of their traditional working-class voter base just as they seemed on the verge of achieving power.