Business
This Week in Prediction Markets: Biden’s Decision, POPCAT’s Rise, and CrowdStrike’s Chaos
Explore the latest trends in prediction markets this week as we analyze Biden’s pivotal decisions, the surging popularity of POPCAT, and the chaos surrounding CrowdStrike. Stay informed on these key developments shaping the market landscape.
This Week in Prediction Markets
Joe Biden’s recent decision to not seek re-election is not entirely unprecedented. Historically, U.S. presidents such as James Polk and Lyndon B. Johnson have opted out of serving another term for various reasons. However, what is truly remarkable about Biden’s announcement is the timing—made just a month before the Democratic National Convention, where the party will officially select its presidential candidate. This decision comes just days after Biden reassured party supporters that the “elites” would not succeed in forcing him out of the race.
This move sparked a significant surge in betting activity on election-related contracts within the Polymarket prediction market, leading to unprecedented trading volumes on the platform. According to data from a Dashboard powered by Dune Analytics, daily trading volume exceeded a staggering $28 million, shattering previous records as bettors rushed to position themselves in a presidential race that is shaping up to be like no other in recent memory.
For context, just a month prior, the platform was averaging daily volumes of around $4 million to $5 million, following the debate between Biden and Donald Trump, which intensified calls for Biden to consider stepping down. Additionally, the number of active accounts on the platform has more than doubled over the past month, climbing to nearly 6,000 from approximately 3,000.
Moreover, bettors have pooled over $500 million in some of the largest political contracts available on the site. Specifically, the market for the U.S. presidential election winner has attracted $319 million in bets, while the contract for the Democratic nominee has seen over $212 million in investments, with Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as the overwhelming favorite. Another contract, which seeks to determine the Democratic candidate’s vice presidential running mate, has garnered $10 million in bets. Currently, the record to beat stands at $744 million, the total amount wagered on Betfair, the U.K.’s largest betting platform, during the 2020 election. With still over three and a half months until the election, one burning question remains: Will Polymarket reach $1 billion in total bets?
A Meme Coin Cat Tops $1 Billion
In an unexpected turn of events, a Polymarket contract focused on the market capitalizations of cat-themed tokens concluded on Sunday, with the Solana-based POPCAT emerging victoriously. The Polymarket question posed was: Which cat-themed meme coin would first achieve a $1 billion market value?
Back in early April, POPCAT’s prospects looked dim, with odds at a mere 2%, trailing behind competitors Keycat and Hobbes. Since its launch in March, the market accumulated $4.6 million in trading volume. Tokens from various blockchains, including Base, Ethereum, and Solana, were in contention.
However, the resolution of this contract was not without controversy. A single purchase of $630,000 reportedly triggered a price spike that pushed POPCAT over the $1 billion threshold, leading some to allege market manipulation. One Polymarket user, known as @The_Guru55, expressed skepticism, stating, “Okay, so this is interesting because that’s clearly market manipulation, but technically it did cross $1 billion on one website. Someone here with a vested interest in Popcat has manipulated the market and pushed it over.” Another commenter remarked, “Literally a one-second pump with one order on one website is pretty questionable.” As of Monday, Polymarket’s ruling that POPCAT had won stood uncontested.
The Market Misjudges the CrowdStrike Windows Snafu
In another noteworthy incident, a faulty patch released by CrowdStrike for its security software on Friday caused widespread chaos, rendering Windows computers inoperable across the globe. The disruptions began in Europe and Asia during their business hours and continued into the United States as the day unfolded.
Initially, a Polymarket contract predicted that the situation would be resolved quickly, with odds at 89% suggesting a fix would be implemented by Friday night. However, the market miscalculated. As CrowdStrike engineers published instructions for an initial fix—requiring significant effort for each affected PC—the issues escalated. Over 2,500 flights were canceled, and around 8,000 experienced delays, with Delta Airlines still in the process of rebooking passengers by Monday.
Steven Sinofsky, the former president of Microsoft’s Windows division, weighed in via social media, stating, “The scenario of any antivirus software pushing an update that behaves like this has been a ‘worst nightmare’ for two decades.” On the Polymarket platform, the “no” side of the contract—betting that a resolution wouldn’t occur by Friday—was lightly backed, with only three bettors holding a total of 45 shares, putting just over $90,000 on the line. Meanwhile, the largest holder of the “yes” side suffered a loss of $2,800.
Business
Bhutan’s Strategic Investment in Bitcoin: A New Era for the Himalayan Kingdom
Explore how Bhutan is embracing Bitcoin as a strategic investment, marking a transformative shift for the Himalayan kingdom. Discover the implications of this move on its economy, sustainability, and future in the digital age.
Buddhist Kingdom’s Bold Move into Bitcoin
A stunning landlocked nation nestled between India and China, Bhutan has made headlines by accumulating significant bitcoin (BTC) holdings totaling over $780 million in recent years. This amount represents nearly one-third of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), positioning Bhutan as the holder of the fourth-largest state-owned stash of BTC, as revealed by the on-chain analytics tool Arkham.
Known for its unique approach to governance, Bhutan emphasizes the happiness of its fewer than 900,000 citizens as a more meaningful metric of well-being than traditional economic indicators. This Himalayan kingdom has become the second nation, following El Salvador, to officially embrace BTC as part of its national strategy, incorporating it into the state-owned Druk Holdings fund.
According to Arkham, Bhutan has established bitcoin mining facilities across various locations, with the most significant operation situated on the site of the now-defunct Education City project. Unlike many governments that acquire BTC through asset seizures related to law enforcement, Bhutan’s holdings have originated from extensive bitcoin mining activities, which have seen a remarkable increase since early 2023.
These mining operations are likely connected to Bitdeer (BTDR), a prominent player in the cryptocurrency mining sector. In 2023, the Singapore-based firm announced its collaboration with the Bhutanese government to develop cryptocurrency mining operations in Southeast Asia, successfully raising over $500 million for this ambitious venture. Following this announcement, Bitdeer disclosed that it had completed the first phase of a 100 megawatt (MW) mining facility.
Looking ahead, Bitdeer announced plans to expand Bhutan’s mining capacity to a staggering 600 MW by 2025, reflecting the growing significance of this initiative.
Despite its small geographic size, even smaller than Switzerland, Bhutan faces challenges such as limited economic diversification and an underdeveloped private sector. The nation primarily relies on sectors like hydropower, tourism, and agriculture to generate revenue. In 2022, Bhutan’s GDP was recorded at just under $3 billion, approximately half that of the Maldives.
To bolster its economy, Druk Holdings is exploring opportunities across various sectors. The organization’s website highlights “digital assets” as a key focus area in its technology-driven investment strategy, which also includes projects in hydropower and emerging digital realms like the metaverse.
Recent activities in the Druk wallets, as monitored by Arkham, indicate a flurry of deposit and withdrawal transactions in recent weeks. The fund has received multiple deposits of up to 2 BTC from Foundry, another mining entity, as well as from other unidentified bitcoin addresses during the past week. Additionally, Druk Holdings has periodically transferred bitcoin to various addresses, including crypto exchanges. One notable transaction from early July involved a transfer of over $25 million worth of BTC sent to the crypto exchange Kraken, suggesting that it was likely sold to capitalize on market conditions.
Business
Bitcoin and Crypto Markets React to Anticipated Federal Rate Cuts
Explore how Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are responding to the anticipated Federal rate cuts. Discover the implications for investors and the broader financial landscape in this insightful analysis.
Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Await Federal Rate Cuts
Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency markets have seen minimal fluctuations over the past 24 hours as traders remain cautious ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. This meeting is particularly significant, as officials are anticipated to announce the first interest rate cuts in four years. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just below $58,500, specifically at $58,480, reflecting a relatively stable performance. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a benchmark for the largest digital assets, has experienced a slight increase, trading above the 1,800 mark.
In terms of daily activity, inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have amounted to $12.9 million, with a substantial portion directed towards BlackRock’s IBIT. Analysts widely expect the Fed to unveil a rate cut on September 18, signaling the beginning of a potential easing cycle that has historically provided support for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
As of Tuesday morning in Asia, the 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices indicate that traders perceive a 67% likelihood of a significant 50 basis points rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.7%-5%. This is an increase from Monday’s implied probability of 50% and a notable rise from the 25% probability reported a month ago. On Polymarket, traders are assigning a 57% chance of a decrease exceeding 50 basis points, alongside a 41% chance of a 25 basis points cut.
Meanwhile, the overall market remains relatively stable. Noteworthy movements have been observed, such as XRP rising by 3.5%, SUI increasing by 2.5%, and Fantom’s FTM surging by 10.5%, buoyed by positive market sentiment surrounding its forthcoming rebranding to Sonic.
Trump’s World Liberty Financial to Introduce WLFI Token
In other news, the team behind World Liberty Financial, a project receiving endorsement from former President Donald Trump and his family, has announced the launch of a governance token. However, it is crucial to note that this token will only be available to accredited U.S. investors. During a livestream that lasted over two hours, the team highlighted that the token is intended for governance participation rather than for economic profit and did not disclose a specific launch date during the X Spaces stream.
Throughout the livestream, Trump himself did not specifically mention the token or provide an endorsement. Instead, he reiterated his general views on cryptocurrency policy, much of which echoed his previous public statements, including those made at the recent Bitcoin Conference held in Nashville.
Figure Markets Launches Exchange with Real Estate-Backed Yields
In a groundbreaking development within the crypto space, Figure Markets has announced the launch of its exchange, coinciding with the Token2049 event in Singapore. Founded by Mike Cagney, a co-founder of SoFi, Figure Markets introduces an innovative method for generating yields for users who store their cryptocurrency on the platform.
According to a recent release, Figure Markets claims it can offer returns of up to 8% for non-USD and stablecoin balances. This is achieved by leveraging a fund backed by real-world assets, particularly home equity loans. The operational model involves traders depositing their funds into Figure Markets, which are then pooled and lent to Figure Technologies for the issuance of secured home equity loans. The interest paid by borrowers on these loans creates a spread that not only covers operational costs but also provides returns to investors. These investors benefit from dual recourse protections, daily liquidity, and interest payments that accrue based on the duration of their investments.
While Real World Assets (RWAs) are progressively becoming a noteworthy aspect of the cryptocurrency industry, there are still very few applications that seek to derive yield from these assets to support their operations. Prior to the launch of Figure in 2023, Cagney had withdrawn the company’s bid for a U.S. federal bank charter amid regulatory scrutiny, opting instead to pursue partnerships with established banks.
Business
Meta Bans Russian Media Outlets Amid Disinformation Concerns
In response to rising disinformation concerns, Meta has imposed bans on several Russian media outlets. This decision highlights the ongoing battle against misinformation and the platform’s commitment to ensuring accurate information for its users.
Meta Takes Strong Action Against Russian Media Outlets
On Monday, Meta announced a significant initiative to prohibit Russian media outlets, including the state-funded television network RT, from utilizing its platforms. This decision comes in light of ongoing scrutiny in the United States regarding these outlets’ involvement in covert influence campaigns designed to manipulate online discourse across various social media platforms.
Meta, the parent company of popular applications such as Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, stated that the ban would be implemented in the coming days. This decisive action marks an escalation in the ongoing efforts to combat Russian state media actors, which U.S. intelligence officials have identified as key players in disinformation operations that span the globe, infiltrating the world’s largest social networking sites.
In a formal statement, Meta expressed, “After thorough consideration, we have expanded our current enforcement measures against Russian state media outlets. Rossiya Segodnya, RT, and other related entities are now prohibited from our applications worldwide due to their involvement in foreign interference activities.”
Recently, U.S. authorities have tightened their grip on RT, particularly for its attempts to meddle in the upcoming presidential election scheduled for November. On Friday, the United States, in conjunction with Canada and Britain, accused RT of functioning as a conduit for Russian intelligence agencies. They announced new sanctions aimed at curtailing international funding sources that support disinformation campaigns globally.
This crackdown follows the federal indictment of two RT employees, who allegedly funneled at least $9.7 million to finance American podcasters on Tenet Media, a video-streaming service based in Tennessee. The goal was to amplify the Kremlin’s propaganda and undermine the integrity of the American democratic process.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken emphasized the broader implications of these tactics, stating, “We’re revealing how Russia employs similar strategies globally.” He further noted, “The Russian weaponization of disinformation to destabilize and polarize free and open societies is a challenge that impacts every corner of the world.”
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